Upstream In Perspective

European natural gas prices have more than tripled in 2021 on the back of a post-Covid demand surge that has far outpaced supply – and all before the beginning of winter, when seasonal demand is highest. IHS Markit’s Laurent Ruseckas, an expert in European gas markets, returns to EnergyCents this week to assess the current European gas crunch, and share his views on the potential timing and mechanisms of resolution.

The Chinese saying, 摸着石头过河, translates roughly in English to “touching the stones to cross the river” and describes the need to embrace an often-indirect path to reach a known destination. The saying is relevant this autumn as planners look to the other side of a power shortage affecting more than two-thirds of China’s provinces. IHS Markit’s Jenny Yang and Lara Dong, both experts China gas and power markets, join EnergyCents this week to discuss what’s led to the current shortage of electricity in China, and how we should expect the situation to evolve as planners prepare for a seasonal increase in demand.

Transitioning United States power and gas markets to a net-zero economy requires coordinate policy and infrastructure strategies that don’t neglect practicalities of implementation. IHS Markit power experts Xizhou Zhou and Wade Shafer join EnergyCents this week to discuss potential tightness in US gas and power markets as 2021 winter approaches, and how what happens in the near-term may shape long-term plans for gas and power infrastructure – a research focus of their upcoming study, “New Configurations: America’s Gas and Power in Net Zero”. More information on how to join the New Configurations study: https://ihsmarkit.com/products/new-configurations-america-gas-power-net-zero.html. Ask our experts a question or book 1-1 time: https://experts.ihsmarkit.com/home.

Competition within the Canadian oil sands has concentrated among a few specialists as carbon-concerns contribute to divestments from more diversified players. IHS Markit’s Kevin Birn, an expert in emissions and Canadian oil markets, joins EnergyCents this week to share what is a stable outlook for oil sands production, and consider how we should view play’s future as climate concerns increasingly influence energy markets. Ask Kevin a question or book 1-1 time with him: https://experts.ihsmarkit.com/experts/birn-kevin.

The climate-policy arena shifts in November to COP26 in Glasgow, Scotland, after a closely watched UN General Assembly session in New York this September that included high-profile participation by government leaders, and even Korean pop sensation, BTS. IHS Markit experts in climate policy and finance Peter Gardett and Conway Irwin return to EnergyCents this week to discuss how diplomacy will meet markets at COP26, and which diplomatic alliances bear watching. Download the report, “Diplomacy meets markets,” at https://ihsmarkit.com/Info/0921/road-to-cop26-alliances.html Ask our energy experts a question: http://ihsmark.it/LweK50GjxwM

Brazil’s presalt is a world-class resource play that is becoming a core region for several major operators. Nevertheless, challenges remain, namely Brazil’s political dynamics, recent exploratory results indicating more gas than oil, and the ongoing energy transition. We hope you enjoy this discussion with our experts Fernanda Machado and Tony Reinsch as they share their detailed knowledge about this substantial resource play. Ask our experts a question or book 1-1 time with them at https://experts.ihsmarkit.com.

Investors, disruptive start-ups and original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) are hunting for the points of competitive differentiation that will drive the future of automotive mobility. The result is a tangled web of battery innovation, retooled-automotive manufacturing, charging-network footprints, and brand-equity promotions. IHS Markit Automotive expert Graham Evans joins EnergyCents this week to help us sort out the competitive environment for electric vehicles, and to consider the various business models’ contingencies and enablers. Ask Graham a question or book 1-1 time with him: https://experts.ihsmarkit.com/experts/evans-graham. Send us your comments and questions by emailing energycents@ihsmarkit.com. Hear more from Graham in IHS Markit's automotive-focused podcast, Autology: https://soundcloud.com/ihsmarkit-autology.

Not all fossil fuels are created equal, and natural gas holds some advantage relative to its carbon-moleculed peers as climate ambition influences global energy policy. IHS Markit Vice Presidents of Climate and Sustainability Michael Stoppard and Shankari Srinivasan join EnergyCents this week to discuss how gas can contribute to a net-zero transition, and other recent findings from their recent study, A Sustainable Flame: The role of gas in net zero. Find the study at: https://ihsmarkit.com/Info/0721/sustainable-flame.html Book time with an expert or ask them a question: https://experts.ihsmarkit.com/home

Upstream Capital Cost Service (UCCS) Discussions is a new addition to the Upstream in Perspective podcast. In these conversations, analysts from the UCCS will discuss some highlights from their latest research. The September 2021 podcast centers around the large price gain that we have seen in the Upstream Capital Cost index. The markets driving this change were steel, bulk materials, and equipment. In this episode, Upstream Cost & Technology experts Sheila Moore, Basel Asmar, Jeff Otten, and Jeff Nitto will discuss changes they have seen in those markets and what challenges the industry might face in the future. Book time with our experts at experts.ihsmarkit.com.

Low-carbon investment by oil majors has historically generated lower volatility and lower returns relative to capital directed at oil and gas projects. How will further decarbonization pressures influence the portfolio choices and returns expectations of the world’s largest traditional energy companies? EnergyCents welcomes back IHS Markit Research Director Chris DeLucia, an expert in oil and gas portfolio strategy, this week to share results of his recent analysis of oil majors’ sector-specific returns, and what to expect in the future as firms balance climate and financial goals. Book 1-1 time with Chris: https://experts.ihsmarkit.com/experts/delucia-chris Ask our energy experts a question: http://ihsmark.it/uwhF50G5PGa

Carbon, Capture, Utilization, and Sequestration projects, or CCUS, involve well-established technologies that have yet to reach the commercial scale to adequately mitigate global emissions. And the sector is now undergoing a period of innovation and investment amid recognition that a viable CCUS business model will be key to firms and governments realizing net-zero ambition. IHS Markit CCUS expert Paola Perez Pena joins EnergyCents this week to discuss the differences in Carbon Sequestration technologies, and highlight the potential catalysts and timeline for its realizing its commercial opportunity.

Global majors began expanding the footprint of their fuel retail stations in 2017 after more than a decade of site reductions. What explains this renewed enthusiasm for branded retail? IHS Markit Director Rob Smith, an expert in global fuel retail, joins EnergyCents this week to describe the changing role of fuel retail in a major’s downstream portfolio as consumers redefine their expectations of automotive mobility. Ask Rob a question or book 1-1 time with him: https://experts.ihsmarkit.com/experts/smith-rob Send us your comments or feedback: energycents@ihsmarkit.com.

The role of upstream exploration is changing as oil and gas companies prepare for growth in a lower-carbon business environment. IHS Markit Chief Upstream Strategist Bob Fryklund joins EnergyCents this week to discuss recent exploration success and trends, and consider the changing role of the business in energy-company portfolios. Ask Bob a question, or book 1-1 time: https://experts.ihsmarkit.com/experts/fryklund-bob Send us your feedback or topics you'd like us to address in the future: energycents@ihsmarkit.com.

Californians approach the anniversary of 2020’s unexpected blackouts during a year that has already seen extreme-weather events impact residents of Texas (winter cold) and the Pacific Northwest (summer heat). What should we expect as we enter August, often the hottest month of a U.S. summer? IHS Markit North American power experts Chad Singleton and Sam Huntington join EnergyCents this week to discuss recent lessons learned by system operators, and how investors should consider power systems’ extreme-weather preparation amid the prioritization of reliable, clean, and affordable electricity. Ask Sam a question or book 1-1 time: https://experts.ihsmarkit.com/experts/huntington-sam

A sense of urgency will define the proceedings at the United Nations’ 26th Conference of the Parties (COP26) this coming November. Policy makers and private-sector participants will look to take action in addressing, what are increasingly viewed as serious, threats from climate change. IHS Markit energy-capital transition experts Conway Irwin and Peter Gardett join EnergyCents this week to frame the importance of COP26, and discuss how outcomes from the event may influence capital flows as energy- and climate-policy converge. Send us your comments or question: energycents@ihsmarkit.com

Global investment in biofuels continues to ramp up as the refining sector optimizes its portfolio beyond traditional fossil fuels. IHS Markit biofuels experts Christoph Berg, Jordan Godwin, and Kevin Lindemer join EnergyCents this week to discuss the rise in biofuels investment, and share their thoughts on the geographies and policies that are driving activity. Ask our experts a question or book 1-1 time: Dr. Chrisoph Berg: https://experts.ihsmarkit.com/experts/berg-christoph Kevin Lindemer: https://experts.ihsmarkit.com/experts/lindemer-kevin

More than 20% of Houston GDP relates to activities in the traditional energy industry – a sector that is being disrupted by innovation in low-carbon energies. How will the effects of this disruption compare to the economic decline observed in 1990s Detroit, whose GDP was heavily reliant on an evolving automobile industry? IHS Markit Regional Economist Karl Kuykendall joins EnergyCents this week to discuss the historically resilient Texas economy, and why we should be optimistic for Houston, the Energy Capital of the World, as it undergoes economic transition. Ask Karl a question or book 1-1 time: https://experts.ihsmarkit.com/experts/kuykendall-karl Send us your comments or questions at energycents@ihsmarkit.com.

Upstream Capital Cost Service (UCCS) Discussions is a new addition to the Upstream Perspective podcast. In these conversations, analysts from the UCCS will discuss some highlights from their latest research. This month’s conversation centers around the oil and gas labor market. In this episode, Upstream Cost & Technology experts Sheila Moore and Jeff Nitto will discuss changes they have seen in the labor market and what challenges workers might face in the future. Ask Shelia a question or book 1-1 time: https://experts.ihsmarkit.com/experts/moore-sheila.

Natural gas has historically reduced CO2 emissions when displacing coal in power generation and remains a significant player in the global energy mix in 2050 in almost long-term planning scenario. However, the lower carbon fossil fuel isn’t wholly embraced by societies on a path to net zero. IHS Markit global gas expert Ed Kelly joins EnergyCents this week to discuss the complicated role of natural gas in a greening economy, and why we should expect the fuel to be a key contributor to meeting energy demand going forward. Book 1-1 time or ask Ed a question: https://experts.ihsmarkit.com/experts/kelly-ed Send us your comments or questions: energycents@ihsmarkit.com.

High-carbon imports into the European Union pose challenges to the EU reaching its net-zero ambition by 2050. A proposed Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism, or CBAM, seeks to balance high-emitting industries’ cost competitiveness with carbon consciousness, and may provide a template for managing the cost of emissions in international trade. EnergyCents welcomes European Climate Policy expert Coralie Laurencin to walk us through the potential implications and timing of a CBAM, and highlight the myriad complexities of charting a course in cross-border regulation. Have more questions? Ask Coralie a question or book 1-1 time: https://experts.ihsmarkit.com/experts/laurencin-coralie. Send us your comments or questions: energycents@ihsmarkit.com.