Complexity Premia

Welcome to the Complexity Premia podcast from Coolabah Capital, which is hosted by Christopher Joye, CIO and portfolio manager of Coolabah Capital, and Ying Yi Ann Cheng, a portfolio management director. The Complexity Premia podcast strives to deconstruct modern investment problems for wholesale (not retail) participants in capital markets. You can listen on your favourite podcast app, or you can find it on Spotify, Podbean or Apple Podcasts.     This special episode of the Complexity Premia podcast is an audible version of a new research paper from Coolabah’s Chief Macro Strategist, Kieran Davies, who replicates one of the RBA’s internal models on the Australian housing market and finds that house prices are expected to appreciate by about 25% over the next few years. You can download the full research paper with the housing forecasts, including charts and figures, here.   This information is suitable for wholesale investors only and has been produced by Coolabah Capital Institutional Investments Pty Lt

Welcome to the Complexity Premia podcast from Coolabah Capital, which is hosted by Christopher Joye, CIO and portfolio manager of Coolabah Capital, and Ying Yi Ann Cheng, a portfolio management director. The Complexity Premia podcast strives to deconstruct modern investment problems for wholesale (not retail) participants in capital markets. You can listen on your favourite podcast app, or you can find it on Spotify, Podbean or Apple Podcasts.     In this punchy episode of the Complexity Premia podcast, we discuss a range of important developments, including:  The bond market recovery in March 2021;   Our performance in the month;   Complex issues with bank liquidity coverage ratios;   The RBA’s QE3 program;   Credit market performance;   Upside surprises to Federal and State budget deficits; and Australia’s housing affordability non-crisis.   This information is suitable for wholesale investors only and has been produced by Coolabah Capital Institutional Investments Pty Ltd ACN 605806059, which ho

Welcome to the Complexity Premia podcast from Coolabah Capital, which is hosted by Christopher Joye, CIO and portfolio manager of Coolabah Capital, and Ying Yi Ann Cheng, a portfolio management director. The Complexity Premia podcast strives to deconstruct modern investment problems for wholesale (not retail) participants in capital markets. You can listen on your favourite podcast app, or you can find it on Spotify, Podbean or Apple Podcasts.    In this short episode of the Complexity Premia podcast, we discuss a range of important developments, including:      • The biggest bond market bloodbath since 1994;  • Our portfolio performance in February 2021 across a range of strategies;  • The likelihood of macro-prudential constraints being eventually applied to Aussie housing;  • How the RBA’s governor, Phil Lowe, brutally bashed the bond market bandits; and    • The RBA’s QE 3 and 4 programs.    This information is suitable for wholesale investors only and has been produced by Coolabah Capital Institutio

Welcome to the Complexity Premia podcast from Coolabah Capital, which is hosted by Christopher Joye, CIO and portfolio manager of Coolabah Capital, and Ying Yi Ann Cheng, a portfolio management director. The Complexity Premia podcast strives to deconstruct modern investment problems for wholesale (not retail) participants in capital markets. You can listen on your favourite podcast app, or you can find it on Spotify, Podbean or Apple Podcasts.    In this punchy episode of the Complexity Premia podcast, we discuss a range of important developments, including:     Our portfolio performance in January 2021 across a range of strategies;   The RBA’s successful QE 1.0 program;  Our forecasts for the RBA’s QE 2.0 program, which were validated in February;  Why the RBA’s cash rate should be -3% to -4%, which will necessitate QE 3.0 and QE 4.0;    The Reddit Rambo’s retail revolution, which is positive, not negative, for equities;   The risk of WWIII erupting over Taiwan; and  Why QE will not blow a housing bubble, as

Welcome to the Complexity Premia podcast from Coolabah Capital, which is hosted by Christopher Joye, CIO and portfolio manager of Coolabah Capital, and Ying Yi Ann Cheng, a portfolio management director. The Complexity Premia podcast strives to deconstruct modern investment problems for wholesale (not retail) participants in capital markets. You can listen on your favourite podcast app, or you can find it on Spotify, Podbean or Apple Podcasts.   Happy New Year listeners! We are really sorry for the long delay since our last episode, but we have been super busy managing our clients’ money! In this action-packed episode of the Complexity Premia podcast, which is our first for 2021, we discuss a range of issues, including:    Our portfolio performance in 2020;  Our forecasts for 2021, including housing, unemployment, QE and macro markets generally;   The burgeoning conflict between democracy and autocracy; and  Our thoughts on the big left- and right-tail risks, including the prospect of major power conflict.  T

Welcome to the Complexity Premia podcast from Coolabah Capital, which is hosted by Christopher Joye, CIO and portfolio manager of Coolabah Capital, and Ying Yi Ann Cheng, a portfolio management director. The Complexity Premia podcast strives to deconstruct modern investment problems for wholesale (not retail) participants in capital markets. You can listen on your favourite podcast app, or you can find it on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or Podbean.    In the latest episode of our Complexity Premia podcast, we discuss a range of issues, including:   how you can turn beta into alpha by anticipating policymakers' behaviours; whether there is a difference between traders and investors (or are they actually doing exactly the same thing over different horizons); why markets have been ignoring the second COVID-19 waves; the long-term impact of central banks disintermediating markets, and whether Western statism is ironically coming to resemble socialist central planning;  forecasting Victoria’s COVID-19 peak in late July

Welcome to the Complexity Premia podcast from Coolabah Capital, which is hosted by Christopher Joye, CIO and portfolio manager of Coolabah Capital, and Ying Yi Ann Cheng, a portfolio management director. The Complexity Premia podcast strives to deconstruct modern investment problems for wholesale (not retail) participants in capital markets. You can listen on your favourite podcast app, or you can find it on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or Podbean. In the latest episode of our Complexity Premia podcast, we discuss a range of issues, including:  why the emergence of effective COVID-19 vaccines will be the next big regime change for markets with both Moderna and Oxford University leading the charge towards the delivery of a solution before the end of this year;  a detailed discussion of markets in June and over the last three months, including our trading activity which has encompassed more than $9.3 billion of purchases and sales over the last 6-7 months;  analysis of the widely misunderstood subject of bond/credit

Welcome to the Complexity Premia podcast from Coolabah Capital, which is hosted by Christopher Joye, CIO and portfolio manager of Coolabah Capital, and Ying Yi Ann Cheng, a portfolio management director. The Complexity Premia podcast strives to deconstruct modern investment problems for wholesale (not retail) participants in capital markets. You can listen on your favourite podcast app, or you can find it on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or Podbean. In this episode we discuss a range of issues, including: the best investment opportunities in fixed-income markets after a massive rally over April and May; the battle between central banks and fundamentals; the outlook for Aussie housing; and Cold War 2.0.   This information is suitable for wholesale investors only and has been produced by Coolabah Capital Institutional Investments Pty Ltd ACN 605806059, which holds Australian Financial Services Licence No. 482238 (CCII). The views expressed in this recording represent the personal opinions of the speakers and do not r

Welcome to the Complexity Premia podcast from Coolabah Capital, which is hosted by Christopher Joye, CIO and portfolio manager of Coolabah Capital, and Ying Yi Ann Cheng, a portfolio management director. The Complexity Premia podcast strives to deconstruct modern investment problems for wholesale (not retail) participants in capital markets. You can listen on your favourite podcast app, or you can find it on Apple Podcasts or Podbean. In this episode we discuss a range of issues, including: the impact of COVID-19 on markets; our approach to thinking through and capitalising on this 1-in-100 year shock; the outlook for investors and major risks, such as US-China relations, global debt crises, EU disintegration and the Aussie housing market...  This information is suitable for wholesale investors only and has been produced by Coolabah Capital Institutional Investments Pty Ltd ACN 605806059, which holds Australian Financial Services Licence No. 482238 (CCII). The views expressed in this recording represent the p

Welcome to the Complexity Premia podcast from Coolabah Capital, which is hosted by Christopher Joye, CIO and portfolio manager of Coolabah Capital, and Ying Yi Ann Cheng, a portfolio management director. The Complexity Premia podcast strives to deconstruct modern investment problems for wholesale (not retail) participants in capital markets. You can listen on your favourite podcast app, or you can find it on Apple Podcasts or Podbean. In this episode we discuss a range of issues, including the current market meltdown that is rapidly emulating aspects of the GFC and which will eventually present some once-in-a-generation buying opportunities: We discuss how COVID-19 is a classic case of global market failure driven by extreme information asymmetries, which Chris has repeatedly explained in his AFR columns over the last couple of weeks;  How central banks need to move quickly to provide a liquidity bridge to keep markets functioning given investors are struggling to realistically price existential pandemic risk

Welcome to the Complexity Premia podcast from Coolabah Capital, which is hosted by Christopher Joye, CIO and portfolio manager of Coolabah Capital, and Ying Yi Ann Cheng, a portfolio management director. The Complexity Premia podcast strives to deconstruct modern investment problems for wholesale (not retail) participants in capital markets. You can listen on your favourite podcast app, or you can find it on Apple Podcasts or Podbean. Happy New Year! In our first episode for 2020, we discuss: the 2019 performance wrap-up; a little bit more about Coolabah and our approach to life; the coming of a dangerous decade; the rise of zombie companies; and lunch with one of the world’s biggest hedge fund managers. This information is suitable for wholesale investors only and has been produced by Coolabah Capital Institutional Investments Pty Ltd ACN 605806059, which holds Australian Financial Services Licence No. 482238 (CCII). The views expressed in this recording represent the personal opinions of the speakers and do

Welcome to the Complexity Premia podcast from Coolabah Capital, which is hosted by Christopher Joye, CIO and portfolio manager of Coolabah Capital, and Ying Yi Ann Cheng, a portfolio management director. The Complexity Premia podcast strives to deconstruct modern investment problems for wholesale (not retail) participants in capital markets. You can listen on your favourite podcast app, or you can find it on Apple Podcasts or Podbean. In this episode we discuss: the bond market’s performance in 2019; welcoming Pinnacle to our family; the human shortcomings of the world's greatest investor, Jim Simons; Phil Lowe vs Josh Frydenberg over fiscal policy; the price of forcing banks to become crime fighters; and the revolution hitting financial advice.  This information is suitable for wholesale investors only and has been produced by Coolabah Capital Institutional Investments Pty Ltd ACN 605806059, which holds Australian Financial Services Licence No. 482238 (CCII). The views expressed in this recording represent t

Welcome to the Complexity Premia podcast from Coolabah Capital, which is hosted by Christopher Joye, CIO and portfolio manager of Coolabah Capital, and Ying Yi Ann Cheng, a portfolio management director. The Complexity Premia podcast strives to deconstruct modern investment problems for wholesale (not retail) participants in capital markets. You can listen on your favourite podcast app, or you can find it on Apple Podcasts or Podbean here. In this episode we discuss: conviction vs humility; markets and the major bank senior rally; why big banks have never faced more competition; whether high-yield debt is just equities in disguise; the latest developments in the housing market; whether the RBA will keep cutting rates, and more on QE; and why the next year could be very good. This information is suitable for wholesale investors only and has been produced by Coolabah Capital Institutional Investments Pty Ltd ACN 605806059, which holds Australian Financial Services Licence No. 482238 (CCII). The views expressed

Welcome to the Complexity Premia podcast from Coolabah Capital, which is hosted by Christopher Joye, CIO and portfolio manager of Coolabah Capital, and Ying Yi Ann Cheng, a portfolio management director. The Complexity Premia podcast strives to deconstruct modern investment problems for wholesale (not retail) participants in capital markets. You can listen on your favourite podcast app, or you can find it on Apple Podcasts or Podbean here. In this long overdue episode we discuss: the latest developments in markets; Chris Joye's housing debate with doomsayer Dr Steve Keen; the new CBA hybrid deal; whether investors should switch from hybrids to foreign high yield; the RBA's rate cut and the coming of Aussie QE; whether traders are smarter than investors and why capitalism is dead… The Youtube link to the Keen vs Joye housing war can be found here. This information is suitable for wholesale investors only and has been produced by Coolabah Capital Institutional Investments Pty Ltd ACN 605806059, which holds Aust