Common Sense Fantasy Baseball

@rundmcd is back to talk about evaluating risk!  (AKA "Dave tells me the 3 pitchers I'm allowed to draft this year!") 11:20 Carlos Rodon 22:05 Jacob deGrom 31:15 Shane Bieber 38:50 Chris Sale 44:15 Luis Severino 54:05 Clevinger vs Verlander 1:14:43 Clayton Kershaw, and Dinelson Lamet "When I see PRP, I'm out." - Dave 1:27:30 Zac Gallen Find us on Twitter!  He's @rundmcd, and I'm @commonsensefbb.

Greg (@gjewett9) helps me size up EVERY team once again, as I do last minute cramming for my Main Event draft tomorrow. 2:05 Baltimore Orioles 3:20 Boston Red Sox 5:25 Chicago White Sox 5:50 Cleveland 9:45 Detroit Tigers 10:45 Houston Astros 12:20 KC Royals 13:50 LA Angels 15:10 Minnesota Twins 16:30 NY Yankees 17:10 Oakland A's 18:15 Seattle Mariners 19:55 Tampa Rays 25:35 Texas Rangers 26:55 Toronto Blue Jays 27:40 Arizona Diamondbacks 29:20 Atlanta Braves 30:25 Chicago Cubs 31:40 Cincinnati Reds 33:40 Colorado Rockies 35:20 LA Dodgers 36:25 Miami Marlins 37:20 Milwaukee Brewers 38:35 NY Mets 39:15 Philadelphia Phillies 41:10 Pittsburgh Pirates 44:10 San Diego Padres 46:25 SF Giants 48:30 St Louis Cardinals 50:10 Washington Nationals 51:55 Speculative pick ups, stashes, and late round darts Find us on Twitter!  He's @gjewett9, and I'm @commonsensefbb.

Rob and I talk about his podcast and his leagues, and how we're building our teams in DC leagues and FAAB leagues. 06:20 Differences in drafting strategies for Draft and Hold (Draft Champions) leagues vs FAAB leagues 11:00 Catchers 16:45 Closers 22:45 Stolen Bases 31:25 Luis Robert 37:55 Keston Hiura and Javy Baez (and other swing and miss guys) 44:25 Tim Anderson 51:10 Prospects 58:00 Pitchers (Means, Urquidy, Yarbrough, Minor) 1:12:00 Late DC picks He's @deadpullhitter, I'm @commonsensefbb -- find us on Twitter!

Dave (@RunDMcD) shares what he's learned through years of experience, about how to assess players' risks in fantasy baseball. 1:45 Verlander, going into 2020 6:00 How to think about taking a guy off your board completely 9:35 Sale, Syndergaard, and Severino (don't draft guys who won't be playing) 11:45 Taillon (it can take a while to get back your skills) 18:10 deGrom (we can disagree on how much risk there is, but don't ignore it as a part of the assessment) 27:40 Scherzer (we all see the risks, but we don't seem to know how to price them in) 31:40 Strasburg (fear of the unknown plus the price...plus the fact that he's had injury issues all through the years) 34:10 Lamet (he's injured now...plus, PRP means TJ a lot of the time) 37:20 Carrasco (the risk/reward is a value at the price) 40:30 Musgrove (going late enough to take a risk) 43:35 Canning (after pick 300, go for upside) 46:25 Stanton vs Buxton (price matters, many paths to value, UT downgrade, career IL days, paying for a career year, volume of injur

@MattWi77iams and I discuss some players we think are going too early: 3:40 Jose Abreu around pick 30 and Luke Voit around pick 60 - Matt 8:25 Pablo Lopez around pick 100 - Drew 15:45 Walker Buehler around pick 20 - Matt 20:30 Kyle Lewis around pick 75 (but even at pick 100-120) - Drew 26:05 Randy Arozarena around pick 60 - Matt -- 32:20 an aside on Mondesi -- Then we discuss some players we think are going too late: 38:00 Austin Meadows and Yoan Moncada (around pick 85) - Matt 41:45 Matt Chapman around pick 120 - Drew 45:50 Rafael Devers around pick 50 - Matt 48:00 Zack Greinke around pick 100 - Drew 54:00 Bryan Reynolds around pick 325 - Drew He's @MattWi77iams, I'm @commonsensefbb -- find us on Twitter!

Greg (@gjewett9) and I look at every MLB team and discuss the closer situation, as best we can tell in November. AMERICAN LEAGUE 1:30 Baltimore Orioles 3:40 Boston Red Sox 6:20 Chicago White Sox 8:25 Cleveland Indians 11:10 Detroit Tigers 13:50 Houston Astros 15:50 Kansas City Royals 18:10 Los Angeles Angels 20:10 Minnesota Twins 21:30 New York Yankees 23:50 Oakland Athletics 26:20 Seattle Mariners 27:35 Tampa Bay Rays 29:10 Texas Rangers 31:45 Toronto Blue Jays NATIONAL LEAGUE 33:55 Arizona Diamondbacks 36:15 Atlanta Braves 38:30 Chicago Cubs 41:05 Cincinnati Reds 43:40 Colorado Rockies 45:35 Los Angeles Dodgers 47:45 Miami Marlins 50:25 Milwaukee Brewers 54:10 New York Mets 57:05 Philadelphia Phillies 59:15 Pittsburgh Pirates 1:02:05 San Diego Padres 1:04:45 San Francisco Giants 1:06:15 St Louis Cardinals 1:07:15 Washington Nationals 1:08:10 BONUS - Greg's Hader-type breakout formula He's @gjewett9, I'm @commonsensefbb -- find us on Twitter!

Zack and I take a look at early ADP from Justin Mason's "2 Early Mock Drafts" and Zack's draft and hold leagues that are drafting for real already. 4:10 We gently poke fun at mock drafts and point out some shortcomings Then we discuss players we think are going too early (AVOIDS): 7:10 Mike Clevinger at ADP 61 (Zack) 19:40 Pete Alonso at ADP 53 (Drew) 25:55 Sixto Sanchez at ADP 80 (Zack) 34:00 Gleyber Torres at ADP 63 (Drew...Zack disagrees) 40:05 Gary Sanchez at ADP 169 (Zack) 45:35 Joey Gallo at ADP 127 (Drew) Next we move on to players we think are going too late (TARGETS): 50:35 Gio Urshela at ADP 158 (Drew) ...take him instead of Vlad! 56:40 Zach Plesac at ADP 80 (Zack) 1:04:25 Tommy Edman at ADP 179 (Drew) 1:10:30 Dansby Swanson at ADP 106 (Zack) 1:18:07 Triston McKensie at ADP 208 (Drew) 1:27:30 Michael Pineda at ADP 275 (Zack) Connect with me on Twitter @commonsensefbb!

Toby returns to talk about some up and coming players! 1:10 the keys to Toby's success in 2020 4:45 Off season prep begins!  We start by discussing some lessons learned. Then we discuss some breakout players: 16:10 Corey Seager 27:40 Luke Voit 34:45 Teoscar Hernandez 42:05 Kyle Lewis 49:20 Dominic Smith 56:00 An aside about Stolen Bases 1:00:50 Austin Nola 1:05:40 Some other guys (Slater, Santander, Cronenworth, Arozarena, Walsh, Happ, Moore) 1:21:40 Who could be the Corbin Burnes or Dylan Bundy of 2021? Connect with me on Twitter @commonsensefbb!

Some thoughts on strike out rate, BABIP, and what they mean for batting average. Connect with me on Twitter @commonsensefbb!

Connect with me on Twitter @commonsensefbb!

Opening day didn't happen...yet.  But @gjewett9 and I discuss baseball anyway! 2:00 Greg's current project 6:05 Bo Bichette - SS 20:35 Isiah Kiner-Falefa - C 25:35 Josh Bell - 1B (and a great call out by Greg, CJ Cron) 30:30 Jeff McNeil - 2B (with Cesar Hernandez call out by Greg) 35:35 Yandy Diaz - 3B 39:00 OFs (Judge, Eloy, Stanton, Soler, Franimal, Schwarber) 45:00 Luzardo and Urias - SPs (Greg's call out: Rich Hill) 48:35 RPs 56:15 Rougned Odor 59:05 Ian Happ (or Dansby Swanson one pick later!)

Welcome back @zackroto! We start off talking some strategy: 1:40 Top SPs - Aces, Pocket Aces and how we draft them 5:10 The case for an Ace 10:50 Draft Champions vs FAAB leagues -- the point in the draft where strategy changes Then we discuss rounds 19 and 20: 18:05 Avoid AJ Pollock at 272 19:45 Avoid Joey Votto at 271 20:55 Buster Posey or Danny Jansen? 23:35 Gregory Polanco and his risks vs Solak, Wil Myers, or others and their risks 26:35 What if Solak wasn't UT only? 27:45 Players that drop and players to reach on 29:50 Domingo Santana's path to playing time 31:50 SPs I'm not really looking at here (largely because of innings concerns and other PT risks) 34:25 Not so into Myers or Kieboom for 2020 35:20 Josh James or Mackenzie Gore rather than lower-upside options 38:30 Catchers without much upside, and closers that might not be closers 39:20 Target Dylan Carlson at 295!  (instead of Kyle Tucker way earlier...or maybe at all) 43:40 More pitchers I'm just not drafting 44:45 Target Domingo Santana at

Please welcome John (@MLBMovingAVG) as we discuss our draft process and talk some ADP. 1:15 It's all about PRICE.  As John says, "You can't force your will on the market." 2:25 Drafting in reverse 7:15 Take the value (when you have players whose skills are close, going far apart) 10:50 Jim Cramer show up briefly 13:30 AJ Puk aka Axl Rose Then we get into round 17 and 18... 15:35 Adrian Houser (ADP 248) and his pitch-mix changes (sinkers for GBs, curveballs for Ks) 34:10 Shin-Soo Choo (ADP 241) vs Austin Hays (ADP 251) ...unabashed age-ism 42:20 Mark Canha (ADP 257) and his crazy OBP-league value 47:25 Starling Castro (ADP 261) and his late-2019 push 49:30 Aaron Civale (ADP 269) is impossible to barrel, and team context is fantastic 51:45 Chris Archer (ADP 268) is K machine, but not the best for ratios, and team context is pretty meh 57:40 Yandy Diaz (ADP 258) and Renato Nunez (ADP 256) and Joey Votto (ADP 270) -- maybe find a 1B before this 1:06:10 Emilio Pagan (ADP 259), Brandon Kintzler (266), Scott O

Please welcome Colin back to the podcast!  He's on Twitter at @CWeatherwax13. We discuss some pitcher risers https://twitter.com/RyanBHQ/status/1229121960308690945 2:05 Elite SPs moving up 3:20 Jose Berrios up from ADP 95 (Nov) to 79 (Feb) 5:10 Edwin Diaz up from 140 to 116 8:30 Doolittle and Nick Anderson moving up Then we turn to some hitter risers https://twitter.com/RyanBHQ/status/1229218664160931840 13:50 Luis Robert up from 106 (Nov) to 77 (Feb) 15:45 Bo Bichette up from 79 to 64 25:10 Brian Anderson up from 261 to 233 And then some hitter fallers https://twitter.com/RyanBHQ/status/1229539025003962372/photo/1 29:05 Anthony Rizzo down from 60 (Nov) to 74 (Feb) 31:20 Yasiel Puig down from 107 to 127 35:10 Willie Calhoun down from 150 to 174 40:30 Jeff McNeil down from 85 to 99 42:25 We talk team construction (especially pitcher strategy in 15-teamers) And lastly, we cover round 16 ADP -- a great round! 1:00:15 Target Mitch Keller at 227, Caleb Smith at 228, Griffin Canning at 229, and Masahiro T

Please welcome Max!  He's @FreezeStats on Twitter.  We talk about: 0:40 Max's blog and research 4:40 Players who earned more HR than they achieved 9:15 We consider what Dodger Stadium could do for Mookie Betts 14:50 "Not all barrels are created equal" (Launch angle and pulling the ball matter a ton) 20:25 Ozuna - example of a pull hitter who "earned" more than he achieved 22:35 Adding in Alex Chamberlain's "Deserved Barrels" 25:00 We move on to a player debate on Oscar Mercado Then we discuss rd 15... 38:05 Probably avoid Jo Adell at 210 40:20 Target Justin Upton at 220 41:10 Target Avisail Garcia at 224 (and hope he plays every day!) 42:20 Throw back to "Not all barrels are created equal" -- Max's next research project 43:25 Target Rougned Odor at 217 45:25 Target Jose Urquidy 47:45 Avoid Kolten Wong at 216 48:55 Discussion on Narvaez and other catchers in this range 51:00 One last exhortation to avoid risky closers...although Nick Anderson might be a value even without 20+ saves. Thanks for lis

Please welcome Mike! Twitter: @SPStreamer First we take a quick look back at earlier rounds and some guys Mike targets and avoids: 1:40 Target Sonny Gray at 98 8:20 Target Carlos Santana at 144 10:35 Avoid Chris Paddack at 51 13:45 Avoid Keston Hiura at 42 Then we get into rounds 13 and 14:  19:00 Target Kenta Maeda (currently 184) 25:00 Target Hunter Dozier (186) 27:35 Bryan Reynolds / PIT discussion 30:45 Carlos Martinez discussion 33:15 Avoid Lance McCullers (194) 34:40 Luke Weaver discussion 36:15 Avoid Sean Doolittle (185) and Giovanny Gallegos (196) and Nick Anderson any presumptive closer where there is role-risk or committee risk 40:55 Target Luke Voit (200) 44:00 Avoid Didi Gregorius (201) 47:50 Quick thoughts on Joe Mugrove and Brandon Lowe 48:45 Target Christian Walker (202) 51:30 Heaney and Folty discussion 53:50 Senzel and McCutchen discussion 56:35 Target Christian Vazquez (210) Thanks for listening!  Find me on Twitter @commonsensefbb.

Big thanks to Matt (@MattWi77iams) for joining me to discuss a couple very full rounds of ADP! We discuss a few of Matt's #2020PlayerBreakdowns: 4:45 Lourdes Gurriel 11:30 Jeff McNeil 12:50 Projecting growth 15:50 Garrett Hampson 19:30 Max Kepler Then we look at players going in the 11th and 12th rounds (ADP 151 -  180). 30:15 Target: Corey Seager at ADP 156 33:55 Target: Scott Kingery at 159 39:00 Potential Target: Gavin Lux at 161 41:25 Avoid: Emilio Pagan at 151 42:25 Target: Kyle Hendricks at 154 45:55 Target: Jorge Polanco at 157 47:10 Avoid: Byron Buxton at 164 49:00 Random Trea Turner discussion 52:05 Potential Target: Julio Urias at 165 55:45 Target: Salvador Perez at 168 58:30 Target: Edwin Encarnacion at 170 1:00:30 Avoid: Aristides Aquino at at 173 1:02:40 Target: JD Davis at 180 1:09:40 Avoid: Sean Manaea at 172 1:12:00 Bonus Target: Khris Davis at 181 Thanks for listening!  Find me on Twitter @commonsensefbb.

I talk speed vs power. Let me know what you think on Twitter @commonsensefbb.

Please welcome Brian (@RuddHQ on Twitter) and enjoy our discussions about the following players! 1:25 Tyler Glasnow at ADP ~68 (4:35 vs Paxton or Woodruff) 6:50 Hector Neris at ~140 (10:25 vs Iglesias, Kimbrel, Jansen, and Diaz) 13:50 Yasiel Puig at ~115 (19:15 vs Benintendi, Mercado, and Luis Robert) 25:25 Rhys Hoskins at ~116 (33:05 vs Carlos Santana or Edwin Encarnacion) 39:10 Adalberto Mondesi at ~35 (50:30 vs Villar or Robles) 57:35 What do you do later with SBs if you take Mondesi? 1:00:25 Danny Santana at ~125 (1:05:30 vs Kingery or Goodrum) Thanks for listening!  I'd love it if you write a review on iTunes, and please find me on Twitter @commonsensefbb.

Please welcome Greg (https://twitter.com/gjewett9) and enjoy our conversation on all things Closers (and other RPs).  Here's a link to his closer charts: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1YQLeAKTjBGGerTdKUMQHYhxfVHi73Y9eJcEGlFh7Lr0/edit#gid=2012002294 3:45 Josh Hader, Aroldis Chapman, Kirby Yates, Roberto Osuna -- The closest you can get to actual safety you can find at the closer position. Already things start to get riskier... 8:40 Edwin Diaz 13:50 Taylor Rogers (with Sergio Romo shout out) 15:20 Liam Hendricks 16:05 Brad Hand 17:50 Ken Giles 19:40 Kenley Jansen (with Blake Treinen shout out) 22:20 Raisel Iglesias (with Robert Stephenson shout out) 25:05 Emilio Pagan -- MOVING DOWN!  (likely committee with Anderson, Castillo, Alvarado, and others)  https://www.tampabay.com/sports/rays/2020/01/28/its-the-ninth-inning-who-do-you-want-protecting-the-rays-lead/ 27:35 Brandon Workman (with Darwinzon Hernandez shout out) 30:05 Kind of skipped Hansel Robles and moved on to Archie Bradley (with Kevin Ginkel s