Art Of Boring

Portfolio Manager Crista Caughlin discusses the economy and factors that drove markets in the third quarter of 2024. Key points from this episode: In the third quarter, most central banks either continued cutting rates – like the European Central Bank and the Bank of Canada – or started cutting rates – like the U.S. Federal Reserve.  Inflation risks have diminished and downside risks to growth and employment have increased, so central banks are responding with easier policy. Crista believes the Bank of Canada will continue to make 25 basis point cuts at future meetings, but a 50-basis point cut is potentially on the table thanks to the Fed’s more aggressive cut. Because central banks are easing policy and the market expects them to continue to do so, the yield curve has started to normalize. All else equal, a faster, more aggressive central bank reduces the probability of a recession. The third quarter was a Goldilocks scenario. Growth was weak enough to allow central banks to ease policy, which is really go