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320 · Stefan Stadie - Sports Betting and Prediction Markets - Through a Trading Lens

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Synopsis

Stefan Stadie is a professional sports trader at Kero Sports whose work sits at the intersection of equities, sports betting, and prediction markets. After starting his trading journey in equities, Stefan evolved toward a more process-driven approach focused on price, liquidity, and market behavior. Today, his edge comes less from predicting outcomes and more from identifying mispricing, capturing inefficiencies, and operating across multiple markets in real time. In this conversation, Stefan shares how the same principles—crowd psychology, liquidity, and price discovery—show up across different environments, from stocks to sports to decentralized prediction markets. He also walks through his transition into arbitrage and market making, how he approaches risk, and what it takes to stay disciplined when operating in fast-moving, competitive markets. This episode offers a different lens on trading—one that challenges traditional thinking around prediction, edge, and where opportunity actually comes from. In