Financial Review

…Down week for stocks. Brexit is complete chaos. No deal with China. Fed’s Clarida can see neutral. Florida’s hand recount. Floridians re-enfranchised. Acosta gets a pass. Pfizer hikes drug prices. Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 11-16-2018 DOW + 123 = 25,413 SPX + 6 = 2736 NAS – 11 = 7247 RUT + 3 = 1527 10 Y – .04 = 3.07% OIL + .37 = 56.83 GOLD + 8.10 = 1222.10   The S&P 500 fell 1.6 percent this week, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average and Nasdaq Composite both declined more than 2 percent. Technology, the biggest sector in the S&P 500 by market cap, was the second-worst performer this week, falling 2.5 percent. The sector dropped following a 5.4 percent decline in Apple. Wall Street analysts worry iPhone sales will slow down. Tech-related shares like Amazon and Netflix were also down 7 percent and 5.7 percent, respectively. Sharp losses in Nvidia dragged down the chips sector and the overall tech sector. Retailers were also down sharply this week. The SPDR S&P Retail ETF (XRT) pulled back 4.5 perc

…Stocks bounce. Brexit ministers resign. Fed monitors global growth. Oil signals slowdown. Mueller’s quiet time is over. NYT blasts Facebook. Earnings watch: Walmart, Nvidia, JC Penney, Nordstrom, Applied Materials, Sonos. GE’s bond problem. Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 11-15-2018 DOW + 208 = 25,289 SPX + 28 = 2730 NAS + 122 = 7259 RUT + 21 = 1524 10 Y un 3.12% OIL + .31 = 56.56 GOLD + 2.50 = 1214.00   If you follow the markets from the opening bell, you have probably noticed that the major indices have been reversing over the course of the trading session. It happened again today. Stocks opened in negative territory and moved higher, turning positive a little after lunch. Yesterday was the opposite – stocks started higher, then reversed lower. Why did stocks turn higher today? Who knows. The markets have just been all over the place. Investors are having a hard time assigning valuation. And this downturn feels different. In turn, that means that normal tactics don’t really apply right now. For exampl

…CPI inflation gauge jumps. Apple for the bear. PM May has a Brexit deal nobody likes. PG&E’s fire problem. Wells Fargo has a puffery problem. Financial Review  by Sinclair Noe for 11-14-2018 DOW – 205 = 25,080 SPX – 20 = 2701 NAS – 64 = 7136 RUT – 12 = 1502 10 Y – .02 = 3.12% OIL + .31 = 56.00 GOLD + 8.60 = 1211.50   Stocks started the trading session in positive territory and seemed to be holding strong to triple digit gains on the Dow. In the blink of an eye the market turned volatile. The Dow Industrials had a spread of 565 points from session high to session low. After a record breaking 12 consecutive sessions of declines, oil prices bounced a little today – but after the closing bell, the American Petroleum Institute reported that crude supplies rose by 8.8 million barrels for the week ended Nov. 9. Meanwhile natural gas prices jumped 18% today, the biggest single day percentage advance in 14 years. Three big topics in today’s market: inflation, Apple, and Brexit.   The consumer price index climbed 0.3%

…Stocks stumble again. Oil bear. Amazon picks 2 for HQ2. Possible Brexit deal. Cabinet shakeup. Still counting votes. AZ turns blue(-ish). Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 11-13-2018 DOW – 100 = 25,286 SPX – 4 = 2722 NAS + .01 = 7200 RUT – 3 = 1514 10 Y – .04 = 3.14% OIL – 4.65 = 55.28 GOLD + 2.00 = 1202.90   Stocks started the morning in positive territory, however there was no rally. The major indices were just slightly higher – not enough to trigger computerized trading programs to buy. After a couple of hours of drifting aimlessly, stocks dropped. Energy stocks weighed heaviest on the S&P 500 as crude oil fell for a record 12th consecutive session, pushing prices down to a one-year low. WTI dropped more than 7%, its biggest one-day decline in about 3 years. Oil prices have plunged more than $20 a barrel since the start of October, when Brent crude rose to nearly $87 a barrel and U.S. crude traded just shy of $77. Both benchmarks are now trading firmly in bear market territory, having fallen more than

…Another crash day. Oil down 11 straight.  Goldman’s 1MDB problem. Apple sales slowdown. GE under $8. Singles Day. Merger Monday. VW will go electric and it will be cheaper than Tesla. Bad Paris vacation. Reservists on the border. Still counting votes. Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 11-12-2018 DOW – 602= 25,387 SPX – 54 = 2726 NAS – 206 = 7200 RUT – 30 = 1518 10 Y 3.19% OIL – 1.17 = 59.02 GOLD – 9.50 = 1200.90 The Dow Industrials closed near the lows of the session. It was just ugly, all around. Apple sank 5% after the facial-recognition supplier Lumentum cut its outlook, prompting worries of slowing demand for the iPhone. Facebook, Amazon, Alphabet, and Netflix are all in correction territory, defined as a drop of at least 10% from a recent peak, and Netflix and Facebook shares have shed around a third of their values since hitting 52-week peaks.   Goldman and Apple’s shares were down by at least 5%. A $1 move in any one of the Dow’s 30 components equates to an almost 7-point swing in the Dow. Goldman

…Stocks down for the day, up for the week. Oil drops for 10th straight session. Producer prices pop. Court blocks Keystone XL. Changes in asylum. Fighting reporters. Waiting on election results. Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 11-09-2018 DOW – 201 = 25,989 SPX – 25 = 2781 NAS – 123 = 7406 RUT – 28 = 1549 10 Y – .05 = 3.19% OIL – .82 = 59.85 GOLD – 14.10 = 1210.40   The Dow rallied by nearly 3% this week — its best performance since March — while the S&P 500 gained more than 2%. The Nasdaq was up less than 1%.   Producer prices rose more than forecast in October for the biggest jump in six years on broad gains in costs for goods and services. The producer-price index rose 0.6 percent from September and climbed 2.9 percent from a year earlier. Excluding food and energy costs, the core PPI readings were also up more than forecast, rising 2.6 percent from October 2017 and 0.5 percent from the prior month. The PPI report also showed the cost of goods climbed 0.6 percent, the biggest gain since May. Services p

Erick Loomis, author of “A History of America in Ten Strikes” The post Erik Loomis – A History of America in Ten Strikes appeared first on Eat the Bankers.com.

…Fed stands pat on rates. Oil enters bear market. Court rules DACA must continue. Mass shootings as a health issue. Earnings season: Disney, Roku, TripAdvisor and Hertz. Ford and VW talk alliance. Sears closing more stores. Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 11-08-2018 DOW + 10 = 26,191 SPX – 7 = 2806 NAS – 39 = 7530 RUT – 3 = 1578 10 Y + .02 = 3.23% OIL – .90 = 60.77 GOLD – 2.60 = 1224.50   Stocks rallied yesterday, after the midterm elections. Today, not so much. The Federal Reserve wrapped up its policy meeting released its statement leaving the federal funds target range unchanged at between 2% and 2.25%, as had been widely expected. However, Fed officials did say in the statement that they expect “further gradual increases,” supporting analysts’ expectations of a fourth rate hike this year in December. In September, the Fed removed language that said its policy was “accommodative,” indicating that Fed officials see interest rates moving closer to a “neutral” setting that would support full employment a

…Elections split down the middle. Dems take the House. GOP holds the Senate. Jeff Sessions fired. Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 11-07-2018 DOW + 545 = 26,180 SPX + 58 = 2813 NAS + 194 = 7570 RUT + 26 = 1582 10 Y un = 3.21% OIL – .59 = 61.62 GOLD  – .40 = 1227.10   Finally, the mid-term election is in the books, and in Arizona we should learn the results in a couple of days, or longer.  The Arizona Senate race is so tight that they will take a couple of extra days to count all ballots cast. A possible victor could be announced by the end of the week. The Phoenix mayoral race will take longer. Kate Gallegos held a strong lead but not enough for a majority, so she will have a runoff election against Daniel Valenzuela in March. Phoenix Councilwoman Thelda Williams has been serving as temporary mayor and will continue until the runoff election. The McSally-Sinema race is still too close to call. As of today, McSally leads by about 15,000 votes but Maricopa Country Recorder Adrian Fontes his office still has

…Election Day, finally. JOLTS, a job for everybody. The cost of tariffs. Sanctions on Iran. Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 11-06-2018 DOW + 173 = 25,635 SPX + 17 = 2755 NAS + 47 = 7375 RUT + 8 = 1556 10 Y + .01 = 3.21% OIL – 1.40 = 61.70 GOLD – 4.20 = 1227.40 Today is the day — this is not a drill. The first polls back East have just closed. As more polls close over the next couple of hours, we might start to see some trends develop. There’s still in people’s minds the idea that there could be a surprise. Most people are waiting to see what the results are before they make any major investment decisions. There is a strong possibility that the election will result in political gridlock. There could be another leg higher if we get gridlock because the existing economic agenda won’t be altered materially. Or we could get a rally, just because the elections are finally over, and there is some certainty. Nobody knows how the election will unfold. Nobody knows how it will impact the markets. We will only know

…Waiting for the election. Iran sanctions in effect. Talk about talking with China. Net neutrality. Lowe’s closing stores. Amazon might have 2 new HQs. FedEx to hike rates. Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 11-05-2018 DOW + 190 = 25,461 SPX + 15 = 2738 NAS – 28 = 7328 RUT – 0.46 = 1547 10 Y – .01 = 3.20% OIL – .36 = 62.78 GOLD – 1.60 = 1231.60   Stocks were mixed. On Thursday, the Fed concludes a two-day policy meeting, which isn’t expected to deliver a change in rates, but may offer fresh insights to investors about the pace of coming rate increases and the effects of trade clashes between the U.S. and China on the domestic economy. Shares of Apple dropped 3.1% today following a 6.6% stock decline on Friday, after saying it would no longer disclose unit sales of its products for investors, as it has for more than a decade.   Tomorrow it will all be over. If we are lucky. Some elections may require a re-count or a runoff, but mostly the election concludes tomorrow. What will it tell us about where we are h

Anthony Nieves, Chair of the Institute for Supply Management Non-Manufacturing Business Survey Committee. The post Anthony Nieves – ISM appeared first on Eat the Bankers.com.

…Economy adds 25,000 jobs in October. Unemployment rate holds at 3.7%. Wages grow at 3.1% annualized pace. Green light for Fed rate hike. Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 11-02-2018 DOW – 109 = 25,270 SPX – 17 = 2723 NAS – 77 = 7356 RUT + 3 = 1547 10 Y + .07 = 3.21% OIL – .83 = 62.86 GOLD – .70 = 1233.20 The economy added 250,000 jobs in October. The unemployment rate held steady at 3.7%, a 48-year low. The U.S. has added an average of 213,000 jobs a month through the first 10 months of 2018, well above the 182,000 pace during the same period last year. In October, the year-over-year employment change was 2.51 million jobs. The September jobs report was revised lower, showing 16,000 fewer jobs than initially reported. The August report was revised higher, showing 16,000 more jobs than initially reported. Workers knocked off the payrolls by Hurricane Florence in September were added in October, though that artificial bump was likely offset somewhat by those whom Hurricane Michael put temporarily out of wor

Timothy Fiore, Chair of the Institute for Supply Management Manufacturing Business Survey Committee. The post Timothy Fiore – ISM appeared first on Eat the Bankers.com.

…Stocks string together 3 wins. US-China talking trade, again. Manufacturing slips. Auto sales strong. Earnings season includes Apple, Starbucks and NYTimes. Criminal charges in 1MDB. Google’s 10-minute global walkout. Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 11-01-2018 DOW + 264 = 25,380 SPX + 28 = 2740 NAS + 128 = 7434 RUT + 33 = 1544 10 Y – .01 = 3.14% OIL – .13 = 63.56 GOLD + 18.80 = 1233.90   For the first time in 6 months, stocks moved higher for a third consecutive session. The 3-day gain for the Dow tops 900 points.   The Institute for Supply Management’s manufacturing index fell to a six-month low of 57.7% in October from 59.8% in September. Any reading above 50% indicates improving conditions.   Total light weight vehicle sales in October reached a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 17.57 million, up from 17.44 million last month and the best showing since November. Ford reported a 5 percent decline in sales for its pickup trucks, while overall sales fell 3.9 percent. Fiat Chrysler Automobiles said US s

…October was a bad month for stocks, and oil. Earnings season rolls on. ADP 227k private jobs. Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 10-31-2018 DOW + 241 = 25,115 SPX + 29 = 2711 NAS + 144 = 7305 RUT + 4 = 1511 10 Y + .05 = 3.16% OIL – 1.25 = 64.93 GOLD – 8.50 = 1215.10   At least October is over. And Wall Street managed to string together 2 winning sessions to finish the month – these were the only back to back positive sessions for the month. For October, the Dow lost about 5%, the S&P dropped about 7%, and the Nasdaq Composite gave back 9%. It was the worst month for the S&P 500 since 2011.   The Dow Jones has some minor support at $24,500. It has minor support at $24,000. But it’s next major support is $23,500. Below that and things are getting ugly. The Dow’s resistance is now at $25,500, which is a long way up from where it’s trading now. The S&P 500’s support is at $2,600, then $2,550. Below that is an even scarier place for us all. The S&P’s resistance is now at $2,800. The Nasdaq Composite’s support i

…Stocks bounce but still headed for a bad month. Facebook turns a profit but user numbers are weak. GE’s penny dividend. Apple sells non-phone stuff. FoxConn deal falters. Consumer confidence strong. Housing stalls. Zinke’s hinky. Attacking the 14th. Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 10-30-2018 DOW + 431 = 24,874 SPX + 41 = 2682 NAS + 111 = 7161 RUT + 29 = 1506 10 Y + .02 = 3.11% OIL + .12 = 66.30 GOLD – 6.00 = 1223.60   US stock indexes jumped more than 1 percent, helped by strong gains for chip and transport stocks. All 11 major S&P 500 sectors ended higher. The S&P is on pace for its biggest monthly percentage drop in more than eight years – down more than 8.5% from September’s close. The Philadelphia semiconductor index jumped 4.2 percent, its biggest one-day percentage gain since March. Intel gained 5.2 percent and gave the biggest single-stock boost to the S&P 500. Chip stocks also gained following a brokerage upgrade of Nvidia shares and a better-than-expected report from chip-gear maker KLA-Tencor.

…Stocks fall again. October turns nasty. Boeing takes trade war hit. UK to tax big tech. Italy dodges downgrade. Merkel lame duck. Jair Bolsonaro elected president of Brazil. Earnings season offers few rewards. Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 10-29-2018 DOW – 245 = 24,442 SPX – 17 = 2641 NAS – 116 = 7050 RUT – 6 = 1477 10 Y + .01 = 3.09% OIL – .90 = 66.69 GOLD – 4.20 = 1229.60   Today was a microcosm of the month’s trading activity: started strong, faded, turned negative, never really recovered. Today, the fade was significant, more than 900 points from intraday high to intraday low, and almost 600 points from intraday high to close. After a series of sharp sell-offs in recent weeks, the US indices are on track for their worst month since the financial crisis. A sell-off like this one can be unnerving, in part because they suggest all is not well with the broader economy.   Boeing shares fell more than 8 percent today, heading for their worst daily performance since January 2016. Much of Boeing’s decline

…Stocks continue to fall; multiple issues affecting markets. 3Q GDP decelerates to 3.5%. Tax cut sugar high passes. Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 10-26-2018   DOW – 296 = 24,688 SPX – 46 = 2658 NAS – 151 = 7167 RUT – 16 = 1483 10 Y – .06 = 3.08% OIL + .29 = 67.62 GOLD + 1.20 = 1233.80   On Wednesday, the Dow Industrial Average’s high for the day was 25,306. Today the session low was 24, 445 – this represents an 850-point spread between Wednesday and today. Volatility has returned to the markets. With the S&P 500 only five weeks removed from its all-time high, we’ve not been definitive about labeling this move a new cyclical bear market. But it’s very likely we are experiencing one. Today’s decline sent the S&P 500 into a correction, as the index is now down about 10.5% from its September 21 year-to-date intraday high of 2,940. The Nasdaq entered a correction on October 11. The Dow is down about 9% from its record high of 26,951.  The Dow on Thursday climbed 400 points, trying to regain losses from prev

…Stocks bounce back (somewhat). Thus spake Clarida. Amazon looks at a weak holiday season. Alphabet stumbles. Intel beats. Twitter loses users that did not exist. AK Steel hurt by tariffs. Saudis get away with murder. Simultaneous former presidential assassination attempts. Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 10-25-2018 DOW + 401 = 24,984 SPX + 49 = 2705 NAS + 209 = 7318 RUT + 31 = 1500 10 Y + .01 = 3.14% OIL + .16 = 66.98 GOLD – 1.60 = 1232.80   New Federal Reserve vice chair Richard Clarida on Thursday said he’d support “some further” increase in interest rates as the best way to nurse the current U.S. recovery along while guarding against any jump in inflation. In his debut speech as the Fed’s second in command and the most recent appointee by President Donald Trump, Clarida said the economy showed signs of continuing to motor along, making it appropriate to continue to gradually raise interest rates that remain “accommodative,” or encouraging of spending and investment.   Clarida’s speech puts him square