Financial Review

…Stock crash again. Stocks suffer when faced with trade wars, rising interest rates. Beige Book points to another rate hike. New home sales plummet. Earnings news: TSLA, MSFT, V, AMD, F, T. Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 10-24-2018 DOW – 608 = 24,583 SPX – 84 = 2656 NAS – 329 = 7108 RUT – 57 = 1468 10 Y – .04 = 3.12% OIL – .40 = 66.42 GOLD + 3.30 = 1234.20 Once upon a time, stocks were up in 2018. Not anymore. The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 606 points and erased all of its gains for 2018. The S&P 500 dropped 3.1 percent and also turned negative for the year. The Nasdaq Composite fell 4.4 percent — entering correction territory — as Facebook, Amazon, Netflix and Alphabet all traded lower. That was the biggest one-day fall for the Nasdaq Composite since August 2011. Stocks have taken a beating this month. The Dow has dropped 7.1 percent in October, while the S&P 500 has pulled back 8.9 percent. The Nasdaq, meanwhile, has tumbled 11.7 percent. And since the market has taken out the lows for the y

Interview with Brian Livingston, author of “Muscular Portfolios: The Investing Revolution for Superior Returns with Lower Risk” The post Brian Livingston – Muscular Portfolios appeared first on Eat the Bankers.com.

…Earnings season onslaught just can’t beat year ago numbers. Chip stocks hit hard. Averages take big hit but rebound slightly. Saudis killed a journalist in Istanbul; now we see the cover-up. DOW – 125 = 25,191 SPX – 15 = 2740 NAS – 31 = 7437 RUT – 12 = 1536 10 Y – .03 = 3.17% OIL – 3.27 = 66.09 GOLD + 8.20 = 1230.90   The good news is that it wasn’t worse. The Dow Industrial Average was down about 550 points in early trade before a recovery, of sorts. The S&P 500 Index dropped below the October lows – also taking out the 200-day moving average – and matching the lows from July. We have not seen any really panicked selling. Today stocks moved lower, offering plenty of opportunity for a freak out but now, stocks did not freak of panic. Each of the big three U.S. benchmark indexes briefly undercut the October low early Tuesday — tagging multi-month lows — as the markets continue to seek a durable floor. And while stocks did recover from session lows, it was only after the damage was done; after the markets esta

…31 years after Black Monday. Existing home sales flat. Italian debt probs. China’s growth slows. Earnings season. Tesla’s pricey cheap car. Attacking the midterms. Amazon HQ2. Buy a ticket. Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 10-19-2018 DOW + 64 = 25,444 SPX – 1 = 2767 NAS – 36 = 7449 RUT – 18 =1542 10 Y + .02 = 3.20% OIL + .72 = 69.37 GOLD + 1.20 = 1227.50   Today marks the 31st anniversary of the Crash of 87. The crash was 508 points, or right at 22%. It was the largest, single day percentage point drop in market history. A similar percentage point drop today would result in a loss of over 5,700 points. Today, the Dow Industrial Average pulled off a small gain, and a small gain of 0.4 percent for the week, and the S&P 500 rose fractionally, successfully snapping a three-week retreat while the Nasdaq shed 0.6% to extend losses into a third week. Stocks are down sharply for the month. The Dow and S&P 500 have fallen more than 3 percent each in October, while the Nasdaq is down more than 7 percent.   The Nat

…Nearing a tipping point on market valuations, trade deals, interest rates. Economy remains strong: LEI up, jobless claims down. Earnings: Paypal, Amex, Skechers. Oil prices fall from sudden run-up. Sports Equinox. Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 10-18-2018 DOW – 327 = 25,379 SPX – 40 = 2768 NAS – 157 = 7485 RUT – 28 = 1560 10 Y – .01 = 3.17% OIL – 1.10 = 68.65 GOLD + 3.40 = 1226.30   Stocks were down from the open but selling picked up in the late afternoon and was heavy into the close. Selling accelerated after Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin announced that he will not be traveling to Saudi Arabia to attend a summit known as “Davos in the Desert.” Mnuchin’s decision to drop out follows Secretary of State Mike Pompeo’s visit to Saudi Arabia, where he met with top Saudi officials to discuss the disappearance of columnist Jamal Khashoggi, who has not been seen since entering a Saudi consulate in Istanbul on Oct. 2. Trump acknowledged that Khashoggi is dead, and the consequences of his murder should be s

…Fed minutes point to more tightening. Tax cuts lead to big deficits and moves to cut Social Security and Medicare. Small stocks suffer. BofE leery of leveraged loans. Why Saudis won’t weaponize oil prices. Legalization Day in Canada. Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 10-17-2018 DOW – 91 = 25,706 SPX – 0.71 = 2809 NAS – 2 = 7642 RUT – 7 = 1589 10 Y + .02 = 3.18% OIL – 1.88 = 70.04 GOLD – 2.60 = 1222.90   Minutes of the Sept. 25-26 Federal Open Market Committee session were released today. Federal Reserve policymakers remain convinced that continuing to gradually increase interest rates is the best formula to preserve a steady economy. A summary of the Sept. 25-26 Federal Open Market Committee session reflected both confidence in the rate of economic growth and some hesitancy over the impact that tariffs might have on the future path. Ultimately, the committee unanimously voted to approve a quarter-point hike to its benchmark rate target, with members indicating that more increases are on the way. The incre

….Best day for Wall Street since March. Earnings on parade: Goldman, Morgan Stanley, Domino’s, Netlfix, IBM, UnitedHealth, United Air, Target-ing Toys. More than one job for everybody. Paul Allen passes. Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 10-16-2018 DOW + 547 = 25,798 SPX + 59 = 2809 NAS + 214 = 7645 RUT + 43 = 1596 10 Y – .01 = 3.16% OIL + .11 = 71.89 GOLD – 2.20 = 1225.50   Stocks bounced back for the best single-session gain since March.   A record 85% of fund managers surveyed by Bank of America Merrill Lynch said they think the global economy is in a late cycle, a jump of 11 percentage points from the previous record high from December 2017. A net 38% of respondents said they expect the global economy to decelerate over the next year, the worst outlook since late 2008.   Goldman Sachs reported earnings that topped estimates, with strength in its investment banking business. The bank reported earnings of $6.28 per share, versus the $5.38 expected. Revenue registered at $8.65 billion for the quarter, exc

…Deficit grows. Retail sales stagnant. Saudis threaten to weaponize oil. Sears BK. Earnings ramp up. Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 10-15-2018   DOW – 89 = 25,250 SPX – 16 = 2750 NAS – 66 = 7430 RUT + 6 = 1553 10 Y + .02 = 3.16% OIL + .38 = 71.72 GOLD + 9.20 = 1227.70   The major averages gyrated between positive and negative territory throughout the session. At its high of the day, the Dow rose as much as 142 points; it also fell as much as 96 points.   The U.S. recorded a $779 billion deficit in the fiscal year ending Sept. 30, an increase of $113 billion, as spending climbed while revenue remained nearly flat. Outlays grew by $127 billion, or 3.2%, while government receipts rose 0.4%, or $14 billion. Compared to GDP, the deficit rose to 3.9%, up by 0.4 percentage points. Interest on the public debt shot up by $65 billion, or 14%, in part because the Treasury had to increase the principal on its inflation-protected securities. Rising interest rates and a bigger debt also played a role.   Retail sales

…It was an ugly week but markets bounced to the close. Bank earnings: JPM, Citi, Wells Fargo. China records a record trade surplus with US. Facebook breach update. Hurricane Michael’s wake. Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 10-12-2018 DOW + 287 = 25,339 SPX + 38 = 2767 NAS + 167 = 7496 RUT + 1 = 1546 10 Y + .01 = 3.14% OIL + .54 = 71.51 GOLD – 6.10 = 1218.50 Yesterday we told you we were expecting a strong open for today’s session; we got it. The Dow opened about 400 points higher. Beyond that, we had to see what the markets offered. And what happened for most of the session was that stocks drifted lower; by shortly after lunch, the Dow slipped into negative territory; and that resulted in a “buy the dip” rally. Today’s rally snapped a 6-session losing streak, but it wasn’t enough to salvage a nasty week. For the week, the S&P fell 4.1%, the Dow fell 4.2%, and the Nasdaq slipped 3.7%. Wednesday’s 800-point slam on the Dow, was the third-worst single-day point loss in market history. And it might be reasona

…Stocks fall off the cliff in afternoon trade. Blame it on the loco Fed. Banks kick off earnings tomorrow. CPI inflation inches higher – COLA higher. Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 10-11-2018 DOW – 545 = 25,052 SPX – 57 = 2728 NAS – 92 = 7329 RUT – 30 = 1545 10 Y – .09 = 3.13% OIL – 2.18 = 70.99 GOLD + 29.20 = 1224.60   After yesterday’s crash, Wall Street pros are debating whether the current slide is signaling more severe problems for a bull market that is more than nine years old. The answer is yes, we just don’t know when and how those problems will manifest. There was a concern that prices would crater on the open – that didn’t happen. Stocks opened lower but nothing significant; prices drifted lower throughout the session and there was even some buying in bonds, sending the yield on the 10-year note lower. So, this was a risk-off session but no sign of panic, at least until about 2PM Eastern time. At which point prices drifted below certain key technical levels, and the algorithms kicked in and …

…Stocks crash, go figure. PPI rises. Inventories up. CVS-Aetna done deal. Wells Fargo losing customers. Sears in the dustbin of history. Hurricane Michael. Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 10-10-2018 DOW – 831 = 25,598 SPX – 94 = 2785 NAS – 315 = 7422 RUT – 46 = 1575 10 Y + .02 = 3.22% OIL – 2.33 = 72.63 GOLD + 5.30 = 1195.40   Stocks crashed today. I know an 831-point decline works out to a 3.15% decline, whereas back in October 1987, a 508-point decline equated to a 22% drop. Still, today was a crash. The S&P lost 3.29%; the Nasdaq dropped 4.08%.   The session started in negative territory and then it just slipped away. The S&P 500 dropped for a fifth consecutive session, its worst losing streak since November 2016; falling below the 50-day and 100-day moving averages. As the Dow dropped, it fell below its 50-day moving average around 25,948; the 200-day moving average is down around 25,140. This was the worst day for the Dow since February.  Stocks closed right at lows for the session. All three indexe

…Stocks drift, rates push higher. Mortgage tops 5%. IMF cuts growth forecasts because of trade wars. Ford to cut workers. Bribing farmers with E15. Google got gadgets. Ackman buys coffee. Michael goes to Florida. Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 10-09-2018 DOW – 56 = 26,430 SPX – 4 = 2880 NAS + 2 = 7738 RUT – 7 = 1621 10 Y – .03 = 3.21% OIL + .56 = 74.85 GOLD + 1.60 = 1190.10 The S&P 500 notched its fourth consecutive day of losses. The Nasdaq Composite snapped a 3-day losing streak. This was a sloppy trading session, with lots of ups and downs and no clear direction.   The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note briefly rose above 3.25 percent today, the year-end target for a number of bond strategists, who say it could continue to go higher. The rising yield has hit stocks, but analysts disagree on what level on the 10-year would really hurt stocks. Bond sales this week will show whether investors are willing to buy at these higher levels. The Treasury is auctioning about $230 billion in 3- and 10-

…Stocks flounder. Google’s breach. SCOTUS returns tomorrow. Brazil elections. Nordhaus and Romer win Nobel Economics. UN climate change report. Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 10-08-2018 DOW + 39 = 26,486 SPX – 1 = 2884 NAS – 52 = 7735 RUT – 2 = 1629 10 Y = 3.23% OIL – .12 =74.22 GOLD – 15.20 = 1188.50   Earlier in the session, the Dow Industrial Average was down over 220 points. So, it was a decent recovery but a disappointing session nonetheless. The Nasdaq closed down for a third straight session. Among the biggest drags on both the Nasdaq and the S&P 500 were Microsoft Corp, down 1.1 percent, and Adobe Systems Inc, down 3.2 percent. By contrast, defensive sectors, including utilities, consumer staples, and real estate, led the S&P’s major sectors in percentage gains. The bond market was closed for Columbus Day.   Google will shut down the consumer version of its social network Google+ after announcing data from up to 500,000 users may have been exposed to external developers by a bug that was present

….134,000 new jobs in September; 3.7% unemployment rate. Wages flat. Variations by geography, race, gender, age, and education. Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 10-05-2018 DOW – 180 = 26,447 SPX – 16 = 2885 NAS – 91 = 7788 RUT – 14 = 1632 10 Y  + .03 = 3.22% OIL – .04 = 74.29 GOLD + 3.00 = 1203.70   The economy added 134,000 new jobs in September. The unemployment rate dropped to 3.7%, the lowest level since December 1969. The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for July was revised up from +147,000 to +165,000, and the change for August was revised up from +201,000 to +270,000. Employment gains for August and July were revised up by a combined 87,000. And the economy has gained an average of 208,000 jobs each month in 2018.   The 134,000 jobs gained in September was below estimates for about 170,000 to 180,000. And we had encouraging economic reports earlier in the week from ADP showing private payrolls increasing at 230,000 pace, plus the ISM reports showed increases in their employment indexes.

…Stocks follow bonds lower. Powell seems overly optimistic. The big questions for Friday’s jobs report. China’s Super Micro hack. Autonomous cars update. Danske’s money laundering problem. Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 10-04-2018 DOW – 200 = 26,627 SPX – 23 = 2901 NAS – 145 = 7879 RUT – 24 = 1646 10 Y + .04 = 3.20% OIL – 1.78 = 74.63 GOLD + 2.60 = 1200.70   If you were looking for market leadership, it was on display over the past 2 days – the bond market was leading the stock market lower. After a big drop in bond prices yesterday pushed the yield on the 10-year note to 3.16%. Today, the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yield rose to near 3.2%, climbing to a seven-year high. The 30-year yield hovered above 3.3%. Equities competing for capital fell accordingly. Selling weighed heaviest on the tech-heavy Nasdaq, which saw losses in excess of 2.2% at session lows before ending down 1.8%. The Dow Jones industrial average and the S&P 500 were both lower by about 0.8%.   Bonds are falling as a result of “str

….Dow hits another record close. ISM Services soar. ADP jobs jump. SCOTUS considers independent contractor case. Honda and GM Cruise. Florence tallies. Nobel chemistry evolves. Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 10-03-2018 DOW + 54 = 26,828 SPX + 2 = 2925 NAS + 25 = 8025 RUT + 15 = 1671 10 Y + .11 = 3.16% OIL + .99 = 76.22 GOLD – 5.70 = 1198.10   The Dow Jones Industrial Average hit another record high close. The Dow logged its fifth consecutive gain and 15 record high close of the year. The S&P 500 index is just a few points shy of a record. Stocks did not close near session highs, but still – a good day. A notably bad day for bonds. The yield on the 10-year Treasury note touched 3.16%, its highest level since July 2011.   The Institute for Supply Management’s survey of non-manufacturing firms climbed to a 21-year high of 61.6 last month from 58.5. Numbers over 50% are viewed as positive for the economy, and anything over 55% is considered exceptional. The ISM services index includes an array of companies

Timothy Fiore, chair of ISM Manufacturing Business Survey Committee. The post Timothy Fiore – ISM appeared first on Eat the Bankers.com.

Anthony Nieves, Chair of the Institute for Supply Management Non-Manufacturing Business Survey Committee. September NMI at 61.6% The post Anthony Nieves – ISM appeared first on Eat the Bankers.com.

….Dow record close. Milking USMCA. NY Times says Trump committed tax fraud when inheriting his father’s wealth. Pepsi grows snacks, won’t go for weed. Amazon goes for $15 per hour. A Nobel for Donna Strickland for lasers – look it up. Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 10-02-2018   DOW + 122 = 26,773 SPX – 1 = 2923 NAS – 37 = 7999 RUT – 16 = 1656 10 Y – .02 = 3.06% OIL – .24 = 75.06 GOLD + 14.20 = 1203.80   A record high close for the Dow. This was the 14th record high close for the Dow in 2018. Facebook, Netflix and Amazon, part of the FANG group of stocks, left the Nasdaq in negative territory and served as a drag on the S&P 500. Dividend-paying sectors were the best performers of the major S&P sectors, with utilities up 1.3 percent and consumer staples up 0.6 percent. So far this year, the S&P 500 is up 10.6% on a total return basis this year versus a 2.7% decline for the rest of the world.   Intel shares led Dow components higher with a 3.6% gain to close at $48.10. For the year, Intel shares are up 4.2

…NAFTA renamed. Net neutrality fight continues. GE’s new sacrificial lamb. Elon Musk makes deal with SEC. Nobel for immunotherapy. Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 10-01-2018 DOW + 192 = 26,651 SPX + 10 = 2924 NAS – 9 = 8037 RUT – 23 = 1672 10 Y + .02 = 3.08% OIL + 2.29 = 75.65 GOLD – 3.60 = 1189.60   Wall Street has been hoping for some sort of victory in the trade wars. And we have a new version of NAFTA, with a few changes – including the name. U.S. equity futures jumped alongside the currencies of Canada and Mexico. Stocks lost some ground through the trading session. Industrial stocks, and more specifically auto and rail-related shares rose. Ford Motor gained 0.8 percent, while General Motors advanced 1.6 percent. Among railroads, Kansas City Southern rose 2.9 percent. Energy stocks got a boost as crude oil prices hit their highest level since 2014 on a combination of the new trade agreement and U.S. sanctions on Iran.   Hours before the midnight deadline, the US and Canada struck a deal for a renewe