Financial Review

…Q3 strong for stocks. Oil remains bullish. FBI to investigate Kavanaugh. No gov shutdown for now. Italy in debt. Tesla tanks. Facebook breached, again. BK for that place that sells that thingy thing. Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 09-28-2018 DOW + 18 = 26,458 SPX – 0.02 = 2913 NAS + 4 = 8046 RUT + 6 = 1696 10 Y un  3.06% OIL + 1.44 = 73.56 GOLD + 9.80 = 1193.20 Today marks the end of trading for September and for the third quarter. Week Month        Quarter S&P 500    -0.5%         +0.4%        +7.2% Dow           -1.1%         +1.9%        +9% Nasdaq      +0.7%        -0.8%         +7.1%   In the third quarter, the S&P 500 rose more than 7% for its best quarter since the end of 2013. The Dow advanced 9% with both indexes rising in 11 of the past 12 quarters. The Nasdaq gained more than 7% over the quarter, and is up for its ninth straight quarter.   While October can be a very volatile month for trading, it probably gets a bad rap due to 1929, 1987, and 2008. October will kick off earnings reporting s

…Judiciary hearings – not democracy at its finest. Impact on SCOTUS. 2Q GDP at 4.2%. Pending home sales fall. Trade deficit grows. Ford braces for a tariff hit. Volvo has electric trucks. Elon Musk sued by SEC. Medical pot moves forward. Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 09-27-2018 DOW + 54 = 26,439 SPX + 8 = 2914 NAS + 51 = 8041 RUT + 0.43 = 1692 10 Y – .01 = 3.06% OIL + .62 = 72.19 GOLD – 11.70 = 1183.40   The S&P 500 rose for the first time in five days. The Dow Jones Industrial Average, meanwhile, ended a three-day slide. Apple rose 2.1 percent after J.P. Morgan initiated the stock with an overweight rating. Amazon, meanwhile, gained 1.9 percent. Facebook, Alphabet and Twitter also closed higher, lifting the broader tech space and the overall equity market. Yesterday, the Federal Reserve FOMC raised rates by 25 basis points, its third rate hike of the year. The Fed also removed the word “accommodative” from its policy statement. Fed chair Jerome Powell followed up with a new message for financial marke

…Fed hikes rates. The economy is strong, everything is rosy. Stocks drop. ECB says trade wars will hurt US. NAFTA circles the drain. Trump blames China. Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 09-26-2018 DOW – 106 = 26,385 SPX – 9 = 2905 NAS – 17 = 7990 RUT – 17 = 1691 10 Y – .04 = 3.06% OIL – .24 = 72.04 GOLD – 6.70 = 1195.10   The Federal Reserve raised interest rates for the third time this year and signaled they will raise rates again in December. The Fed announced an increase in the target range for its benchmark interest rate of 25 basis points to 2%-2.25%, setting the Fed funds rate at its highest level since April 2008. All nine voting members of the FOMC voted in favor of the rate hike.   The most notable change in Wednesday’s statement was the removal of language indicating the Fed sees its policy as “accommodative.” In its August statement, the Fed said, “The stance of monetary policy remains accommodative, thereby supporting strong labor market conditions and a sustained return to 2 percent inflation

…Trump speaks at UN. Oil prices move higher. Unintended consequences of Iranian sanctions. Consumer confidence spikes. Home prices solid but moderating. Waiting on the Fed. Higher rates and the budget deficit. Name game. Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 09-25-2018 DOW – 69 = 26,492 SPX – 3 = 2915 NAS + 14 = 8007 RUT + 3 = 1708 10Y + .02 = 3.10% OIL + .24 = 72.32 GOLD + 2.00 = 1201.80   Trump went to the UN today. After missing his initial time slot at the annual New York City summit of world leaders due to tardiness, Trump kicked off his morning speech by patting himself on the back for what he considers a job well done. Trump said, “In less than two years, my administration has accomplished more than almost any administration in the history of our country.” That kind of bragging might work on the campaign trail but it didn’t fly at the UN General Assembly, instead the attendees started laughing. Trump, clearly caught by surprise by the laughter said, “I didn’t expect that reaction, but that’s OK,” and th

…Stocks slip on concerns about trade wars, Rosenstein resignation/firing. Fed meets this week. Oil prices jump. Comcast to buy Sky. Sirius buys Pandora. Kors-Versace. Barrick buys Randgold. Sears near the end. Name changes. Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 09-24-2018 DOW – 181 = 26,562 SPX – 10 = 2919 NAS + 6 = 7993 RUT – 7.00 = 1705 10 Y + .01 = 3.08% OIL + 1.49 = 72.27 GOLD + .10 = 1199.80     Both the Dow and S&P 500 posted record highs last week despite the announcement early last week of a 10% tax on $200 billion in Chinese imports, which took effect today. China retaliated with taxes on $60 billion worth of US goods. Trump has repeatedly promised a clean, quick victory over China in a trade war. But as hostilities between the world’s two largest economies turn uglier, the Chinese government is demonstrating that it is prepared for a protracted fight.  China had cancelled talks with the U.S. on trade as both countries impose tariffs on billions of dollars’ worth of their goods. The two sides were set

…Another record close for the Dow. Quad witch and rebalancing. Waiting on the Fed. China trade war kicks into gear on Monday; retailers write letters. NAFTA? Bid for Sky. Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 09-21-2018 DOW + 86 = 26,743 SPX – 1 = 2929 NAS – 41 = 7986 RUT – 8 = 1711 10 Y – .01 = 3.07% OIL + .51 = 70.83 GOLD  – 8.20 = 1198.70   The Dow Industrial Average hit another record high close. The Dow and S&P 500 each ended the week with their 10th weekly gain in the past 12 weeks. The Nasdaq lost ground on the week. Quadruple witching, when stock options and futures expire, and the rebalancing of the S&P 500 and the Russell 2000 indexes also contributed to heavier traffic. Volume on U.S. exchanges was 10.7 billion shares, nearly 64 percent higher than the 20 day average.   Tech has grown to be roughly 26 percent of the S&P 500. Facebook, Amazon, Apple, Microsoft and Alphabet represent an S&P 500 market weighting (15.6 percent) that is greater than either the health-care or financials sector. Monday, th

…Dow and S&P hit record highs. Stocks look strong compared to the rest of the world. Household net worth grows. Gov shutdown still possible, maybe. Stocks soar even in the face of trade wars. Florence roundup; chicken and hog problems, and coal ash. One year after Maria in Puerto Rico and don’t forget USVI. Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 09-20-2018 DOW + 251 = 26,656 SPX + 22 = 2930 NAS + 78 = 8028 RUT + 17 = 1720 10 Y un 3.08% OIL – .35 = 70.77 GOLD + 3.20 = 1207.90 The Dow and the S&P 500 closed at record highs today. The Nasdaq is about 1% shy of a record high. It has been a while since we’ve celebrated with milk and cookies. The bull market in stocks is the longest on record – as you know. Today’s price action just confirms the bull market. The move in the Dow looks particularly strong, coming about 8 months after the last record high in January. The last S&P 500 record was in August.   Recent market gains have come on signs of steadily improving fundamentals. In the latest economic data, first-time

…Spending bill passes. Wall Street looks past trade war but the devil is in the supply chain. Current account deficit drops. Housing starts rise. Global poverty drops. Tilray flies high. Visa, MC to pay $6 bill for swiping. Hurricane costs. Puerto Rico one year after Maria. Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 09-19-2018 DOW + 158 = 26,405 SPX + 3 = 2907 NAS – 6 = 7950 RUT – 8 = 1702 10 Y + .04 = 3.08 OIL + 1.32 = 71.17 GOLD + 5.80 = 1204.70   The Senate has approved an $854 billion spending bill, which also includes a short-term stopgap bill to fund the rest of the government through Dec. 7 and prevent a shutdown that would start Oct. 1. It’s the first time the Senate has approved funding for Labor, HHS or Education outside an omnibus bill since 2007. Despite containing only two appropriations bills, the package represents roughly two-thirds of Congress’s 2019 spending. Of the $854 billion, $785 billion fell under agreed-upon budget caps, and the rest came from off-budget funds such as Overseas Contingency O

…New tariffs on $200 billion in Chinese imports. China retaliates. Kavanaugh on hold. Senate passes opioid legislation. Florence death toll mounts. Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 09-18-2018 DOW + 161 = 26,223 SPX + 15 = 2904 NAS + 60 = 7956 RUT + 7 = 1710 10 Y + .05 = 3.05% OIL + .84 = 69.75 GOLD – 3.20 = 1198.90   The Dow and S&P managed to erase yesterday’s losses, Nasdaq did not. FAANG Stocks gained on the day but were unable to erase yesterday’s losses. Wall Street doesn’t seem to care about the escalating trade war between the United States and China.   The White House late Monday released a statement imposing new tariffs of 10 percent on $200 billion in Chinese imports beginning Sept. 24 and expanding the levy to 25 percent beginning Jan. 1. When the new tariffs take effect, over half of all Chinese goods coming into the US will be subject to duties. The U.S. has already slapped $50 billion in tariffs on China, along with those on steel and aluminum. Today, China  hit back at the US with a fresh s

…Waiting on tariffed announcement. Suadis pick Lucid over Tesla. Benioof buys Time. Cigna-Express Scripts OK’ed. Coke is dope. More NAFTA talk. Brexit May’s way or no way. Kavanaugh off track. Flo still dangerous. Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 09-17-2018 DOW – 92 = 26,062 SPX – 16 = 2888 NAS – 114 = 7895 RUT – 18 = 1703 10 Y + .01 = 3.00% OIL – .08 = 68.83 GOLD + 8.00 = 1202.10 Wall Street had a case of tariff jitters today. The Dow Industrials dropped for the first time in 5 sessions. The Nasdaq had its worst day since July 27. Stocks closed lower on word that the White House would announce additional tariffs on $200 billion worth of Chinese imports after the closing bell. China is the source of more than half of U.S. imports of the products on the $200 billion list, so alternative suppliers will be hard to find. If the tariff rate is set at only 10%, the impact will also be largely offset by the renminbi’s 6% fall against the dollar since the middle of June. Still, that could be enough to ding GDP by

…US-China tariffs back on. Manafort flips. 10y hits 3% – odds on for more rate hikes. Florence crawls to Carolinas. Mangkhut roars through Philippines. 10 years after Lehman. Financial Review  by Sinclair Noe for 09-14-2018 DOW + 8 = 26,154 SPX + 0.80 = 2904 NAS – 3 = 8010 RUT + 7 = 1721 10 Y + .03 = 2.99% OIL + .39 = 68.98 GOLD – 7.80 = 1194.10   Stocks started the session in positive territory but that didn’t last long. Once again, concerns about trade wars pushed prices lower. A report indicated that Trump still wants to impose tariffs on China despite recent suggestions that tensions between Washington and Beijing were easing. Bloomberg reported that Trump instructed his team to proceed with tariffs on about $200 billion more in Chinese products, despite Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin’s recent attempts to restart talks with Chinese officials. But the timing for activating the additional tariffs was unclear. The decision comes one week after Trump said he would be adding tariffs on $200 billion in Chine

…CPI in a sweet spot. Fed will still hike rates. Spending bill might avert shutdown. China-US trade talks: no guarantees. Emerging markets still warrant attention. Trump’s Maria lie. Hurricane Flo arrives. Hurricanes do not stimulate the economy. Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 09-13-2018 DOW + 147 = 26,145 SPX + 15 = 2904 NAS + 59 = 8013 RUT – 1 = 1714 10Y un = 2.96% OIL – 1.56 = 68.81 GOLD – 5.20 = 1201.90   Apple climbed 2.4 percent and Microsoft added 1.1 percent. Technology companies slumped last week as investors worried about the prospect of heavier regulation for companies like Facebook and Alphabet. The sector has bounced up and down this week, and it is about 1 percent away from the all-time high it set in late August. Qualcomm rose 4 percent after it announced a $16 billion share buyback program. Other chipmakers including Skyworks and Broadcom also rose. They stumbled a day earlier. Flipping the switch, Advanced Micro Devices which jumped 7% yesterday, started today in the green but then reve

…Stocks trade in range. Apple’s big yawn. Beige book slightly dovish, but hawks will rule the FOMC. PPI slips. Middle class claws back to 1999. Businesses fight tariffs. Dimon is not running (wink, wink). Flo in the wings. Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 09-12-2018 DOW + 27 = 25,998 SPX + 1 = 2888 NAS – 18 = 7954 RUT – 2 = 1715 10 Y – .01 = 2.96% OIL + 1.05 = 70.30 GOLD + 8.00 = 1207.10   So far in September, the Dow is up a fraction, the S&P 500 is down a fraction, but the Nasdaq Composite is down about 2.25%. For a long time, the Nasdaq, or more specifically tech stocks, or more specifically, the FAANG stocks, provided market leadership. The recent pullback is not a catastrophe, but it raises the question about where the market is going and which stocks are leading the way, if any. Right now, it is difficult to see any sector that looks like it could challenge the recent performance of the FAANGs. Without leadership, the broader market is like to trade in a range, at least for a while.   Apple just wra

…Stocks bounce; tech and energy up. Trade concerns linger. Ray Dalio in the 7th inning of the buildup to WW3. GDP forecast slump. Deficit grows. Job openings climb. Here comes Flo. Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 09-11-2018 DOW + 113 = 25,971 SPX + 10 = 2887 NAS + 48 = 7972 RUT + 0.94 = 1718 10 Y + .04 = 2.98% OIL + 2.37 = 69.91 GOLD + 2.70 = 1199.10   Apple rose 2.5 percent, boosting the three major indexes, a day ahead of its expected unveiling of new iPhone models. The S&P technology sector gained 0.8 percent, its biggest percentage jump in two weeks, also boosted by Microsoft, up 1.7 percent, and Facebook, up 1.1 percent. Oil prices jumped 3.5% today. The energy index, up 1 percent, helped to lift the S&P 500, with shares of Exxon Mobil up 1.4 percent and Chevron up 0.5 percent. So, tech and oil were higher – boom.   On the down side, the semiconductor stocks continue to take a beating. Intel dropped 3% today, to extend a six-session losing streak despite gains in the broader stock market and technol

Sinclair Noe interviews Lawrence Burns, co-author of “Autonomy: The Quest to Build the Driverless Car—And How It Will Reshape Our World” The post Lawrence Burns – Autonomy appeared first on Eat the Bankers.com.

…Trade concerns. Ford Active elsewhere. GDP and unemployment rate fact check. Consumer borrowing ticks up. California will go 100% green. Florence warning. Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 09-10-2018 DOW – 59 = 25857 SPX + 5 = 2877 NAS + 21 = 7924 RUT + 4 = 1717 10 Y un = 2.94% OIL – .22 = 67.53 GOLD – .80 = 1196.40   The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq each snapped a four-day losing streak. Last week was the S&P’s first negative week of the past four, and it represented the biggest weekly percentage drop since June. The Nasdaq suffered its biggest weekly drop since March. The Dow Industrial Average slipped while the Dow Jones Transportation Average rallied to a new record high at 11,554. The gainers were led by shares of truckers J.B. Hunt Transport Services up 3.0%, and Landstar System up 2.9%, followed by air carrier American Airlines up 2.0%.   It looks like stocks are still trying to find direction, and there really isn’t much you can read into today’s trading. Meanwhile, US Treasuries are coming off their wo

…201,000 new jobs in August. 3.9% unemployment rate. Wages up to 2.9% annualized, but just keeping pace with inflation. Tariff threats. Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 09-07-2018 DOW – 79 = 25,916 SPX – 6 = 2871 NAS – 20 = 7902 RUT – 1 = 1713 10 Y + .06 = 2.94% OIL = .09 = 67.86 GOLD – 3.30 = 1197.20   The economy created 201,000 new jobs in August. The unemployment rate was unchanged at 3.9%, an 18-year low. And wages finally moved higher, up 10 cents to $27.16 an hour. What’s more, the yearly rate of pay increases climbed to 2.9% from 2.7%, marking the highest level since June 2009. The June payroll report was revised down by 40,000 to 208,000; and July was revised 10,000 lower to 147,000 – a net loss of 50,000 jobs in revisions, bringing the three-month average gain to 185,000. Revisions are a regular occurrence. The August report will face 2 revisions. August has proved tough to measure accurately in recent years, at least initially. Over the past five years, every first estimate of job growth in Aug

…Tech hit again. Betting on resistance. Tariff consultation period expires. Emerging markets continue retreat. ISM pops. Wages are flat, so invent new numbers. Bitcoin kicked. Jones banned. Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 09-06-2018 DOW + 58 = 26,033 SPX – 7 = 2881 NAS – 65 = 7929 RUT – 12 = 1715 10 Y – .02 = 2.88% OIL – .83 = 67.89 GOLD + 3.20 = 1200.50   Once again, the Dow pulled out a modest gain while the tech heavy Nasdaq dropped. Chip-related stocks got pummeled for their worst day in more than two months after market outlooks from a few key players proved to be weaker than previously forecast. The PHLX Semiconductor Index SOX fell 2.7% for its worst one-day percentage drop since June 25. Micron Technology dropped 9.9% to close at $44.65 after the company, at a Citigroup conference, said prices of flash memory chips used in USB drives and smaller devices, decreased in the third quarter. Shares of Micron are now 30% off their high of $64.66 set in late May. Shares of chip-making equipment companies

Anthony Nieves, chair of the Institute for Supply Management Non-Manufacturing Business Survey Committee. August NMI up 2.8 percentage points to 58.5% The post Anthony Nieves – ISM appeared first on Eat the Bankers.com.

…Twitter and Facebook go to Washington. Google not so much. NYT Op-Ed cites inside resistance. Trade deficit jumps. NAFTA talk, talk. Kyl steps in for McCain. Theranos bleeds out. Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 09-05-2018 DOW + 22 = 25,974 SPX – 8 = 2888 NAS – 96 = 7995 RUT – 5 = 1727 10 Y un 2.90% OIL – .98 =  68.89 GOLD + 5.20 = 1197.30 The Dow is only 600 points away from setting its first record since late January. The S&P 500 is trading just 1% below its all-time high. The VIX volatility index, a measure of market turbulence, remains at a subdued level of 14. Compare that to the turmoil in emerging markets. The iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF (EEM) has slumped 11% this year. It’s trading near a 14-month low. China’s Shanghai Composite has tumbled 18%. The Turkish lira has crashed by nearly half against the US dollar. And last week Argentina jacked up its interest rate to 60%. Industrial metals are also showing weakness. Copper, a closely-watched barometer of economic strength, has lost one-fifth