Financial Review

…Trade concerns weigh. Manufacturing sings. Avoiding a shutdown. Tax Reform 2.0 on hold. Emerging markets wobble. Amazon $1T. Nike does it. Kyl replaces McCain. Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 09-04-2018   DOW – 12 = 25,952 SPX – 4 = 2896 NAS – 18 = 8091 RUT – 7 = 1733 10 Y + .05 = 2.90% OIL – .43 = 69.37 GOLD – 9.80 1192.10 Fears about trade have at times weighed on stocks since mid-February when the Trump administration announced tariffs on steel and aluminum. But the Standard & Poor’s 500-stock index is up nearly 9 percent this year, and much of those gains have come in the past two months. The trade conflict between the United States and China may be on the verge of a sharp escalation. Trump wanted to go ahead soon with tariffs on $200 billion of Chinese products, adding to those already imposed on $50 billion of goods. Richard Trumka, president of the AFL-CIO, which collectively represents 12.5 million workers, said over the weekend that a new North American Free Trade Agreement won’t work if it doe

Timothy Fiore, Chair of the Institute for Supply Management Manufacturing Business Survey Committee. August PMI increases 3.2 percentage points to 61.3% The post Timothy Fiore – ISM appeared first on Eat the Bankers.com.

…A solid August for stocks. NAFTA on hold. Arizona Supreme Court kills Invest in Ed and Outlaw Dirty Money. California moves to 100 % Clean Energy. McCain’s message from beyond. Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 08-31-2018 DOW – 22 = 25,964 SPX + 0.39 = 2901 NAS + 21 = 8109 RUT + 8 = 1740 10 Y – .01 = 2.85% OIL – .35 = 69.90 GOLD + 1.20 = 1201.80   Today was a mixed session on Wall Street but August was positive, with the S&P 500 posting a 3% monthly rise, the Dow advancing 2.2% and the Nasdaq rallying 5.7%.   Canada and the United States ended talks to update NAFTA. The mood soured following Trump’s comments that a pact would be on US terms while Ottawa stood firm against signing “just any deal.” Trump confirmed off-the-record remarks he made to Bloomberg News this week that any trade deal with Canada would be “totally on our terms”. The Toronto Star first reported on the remarks citing remarks it had obtained. There was supposedly a Friday deadline to cut a deal with Canada, but that deadline was just ma

Interview with Dolly Chugh, author of “The Person You Mean to Be: How Good People Fight Bias” The post Dolly Chugh – The Person You Mean to Be appeared first on Eat the Bankers.com.

…Stocks slip on news of possible escalation of trade war with China. NAFTA hits a deadline. The EU grows weary. No pay raise for federal workers due to “serious economic conditions”. Consumer spending and inflation rise. McCain’s last flight out of Arizona. Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 08-30-2018 DOW – 137 = 25,986 SPX – 12 = 2901 NAS – 21 = 8088 RUT – 2 = 1732 10 Y – .02 = 2.86% OIL + .54 = 70.05 GOLD – 6.70 = 1200. 60 Stocks moved lower as trade concerns once again took center stage. According to a report from Bloomberg, Trump wants to move ahead with a plan to impose tariffs on $200 billion in Chinese imports as soon as a public-comment period concludes next week. Companies and members of the public have until Sept. 6 to submit comments on the proposed duties, which cover everything from selfie sticks to semiconductors. Trump plans to impose the tariffs once that deadline passes. According to the people familiar with the matter, Trump hasn’t made his final decision, and it’s possible the administra

…Stocks move to record highs. Trade fears calmed. 2Q GDP revised higher to 4.2%. Lettuce mystery explained. AZ election results. McCain’s final honors. Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 08-29-2018 DOW + 60 = 26,124 SPX + 16 = 2914 NAS + 79 = 8109 RUT + 6 = 1734 10 y un 2.88% OIL + 1.17 = 69.70 GOLD + 5.80 = 1207.30   Wall Street extended its rally, with the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite, hitting record highs for the fourth straight session. The Russell 2000 also hit a record high today. The Dow Industrial Average moved higher but is still about 500 points shy of the record close 26,616 set back on January 26. When the Dow hits a record high close, we celebrate with milk and cookies. When the S&P and Nasdaq hit record highs, you can celebrate however you want. Statistically, September is the worst month of the year for stocks. In years when there are midterm elections, the returns have been erratic, and the S&P has averaged a 1 percent decline in September, going back to 1946. But it’s often just tempora

…S&P and Nasdaq record highs. Consumer confidence climbs. Housing prices higher. PR death toll climbs to 2975. Trump attacks Google. Primary election day – a review of the hot races Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 08-27-2018 DOW + 14 = 26,064 SPX + 0.78 = 2897 NAS + 12 = 8030 RUT +0.02 = 1728 10 Y + .03 = 2.88% OIL – .34 = 68.53 GOLD – 10.30 = 1201.50   The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq hit new record highs today.   Consumer confidence in the United States climbed to an 18-year high in August. The consumer confidence index jumped to 133.4 from a revised 127.9 in July. It’s the highest level since October 2000 and beats the previous post-recession peak of 130 in February. The only other period in which consumer confidence was higher was during the Dot Com boom of 1997 to 2000. The present situation index, a measure of current conditions, climbed to 172.2 from 166.1. That’s also the highest level since 2000. The future expectations index advanced to 107.6 from 102.4.   The S&P/Case-Shiller national index rose a s

…A week commemorating John McCain. US-Mexico might have a trade deal. Stocks hit record highs. Farm aid. Yield curve flattens. Tesla stays public. Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 08-27-2018 DOW + 259 = 26,049 SPX + 22 = 2896 NAS + 71 = 8017 RUT + 2 = 1728 10 Y + .02 = 2.85% OIL + .22 = 68.94 GOLD + 5.50 = 1211.80   John McCain will be buried at the U.S. Naval Academy in Annapolis, Md., on Sunday, Sept. 2, following a week of memorial services commemorating his life.   On Wednesday, a service open to the public will be held at Arizona’s state capitol; the service is expected to be streamed online. McCain will lie for a private service at 10 a.m. local time, and the public will be allowed to view him at 2 p.m. local time.  A memorial service will take place Thursday at North Phoenix Baptist Church. The senator’s official government site stated it was unable to accept any more ticket requests. The event is expected to be live streamed.   McCain will then lie in the U.S. Capitol Rotunda in Washington, D.C.,

…S&P 500 and Nasdaq Comp hit record highs. Jerome Powell at Jackson Hole says economy is strong; Fed will be slow and steady moving forward. Trump Organization and Foundation under investigation. Weisselberg and Pecker have immunity. North Korean peace not happening. Godspeed John McCain. Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 08-24-2018 DOW + 133 = 25,790 SPX + 17 = 2874 NAS + 67 = 7945 RUT + 8 = 1725 10 Y + .01 = 2.83% OIL + .74 = 68.57 GOLD + 20.70 = 1206.30   The S&P 500 index finished at an all-time high on Friday, snapping a 145-day run without a record close. The Nasdaq Composite also closed at a record high, the first in about a month. The Dow, however, remains about 3% short of its all-time closing high hit Jan. 26. Of the past 20 S&P 500 corrections, only two lasted more than 100 trading days. The average correction length since the inception of the S&P 500 is 51 trading days. The longest stretch in correction territory ever was a period of 229 trading days that ended in 1978.   While it is certainly

Interview with James Freeman and Vern McKinley, co-authors of “Borrowed Time: Two Centuries of Booms, Busts, and Bailouts at Citi” The post James Freeman and Vern McKinley – Borrowed Time appeared first on Eat the Bankers.com.

…If impeached…, US-China trade war gears up. Trout fishing in Wyoming. No more SALT. Email it in Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 08-23-2018   DOW – 76 = 25,656 SPX – 4 = 2856 NAS – 10 = 7878 RUT – 5 = 1717 10 Y un = 2.82% OIL + .08 = 67.91 GOLD – 10.70 = 1185.60   Stocks closed lower, with almost all S&P 500 sectors falling. Trading volume was low, which is fairly typical for the dog days of August. In an interview with Fox News this morning, Trump said that if he is impeached, he thinks the market would crash and everyone would be poor. On political prediction site PredictIt, the odds of a Trump impeachment hit a three-month high, with the current odds of it happening by the end of 2019 sitting at 37% and the probability of it happening sometime within his first term at 45%.   On Tuesday, Trump’s former campaign manager Paul Manafort was found guilty on 8 charges of tax evasion and bank fraud; a mistrial was declared on 10 other counts as one lone juror held out for acquittal. Also on Tuesday, Trump’s p

…Trump confirms hush money payoff. Wall Street looks away. Fed minutes point to September rate hike. More tariffs against China tomorrow. Existing home sales stall. Target earnings on target. Lowes earnings good but not strong. Facebook plays whack-a-mole. Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 08-22-2018 DOW – 88 = 25,733 SPX – 1 = 2861 NAS + 29 = 7889 RUT + 4 = 1722 10 Y – .02 = 2.82% OIL + .21 = 68.07 GOLD – .20 = 1196.30   So yesterday was an eventful news day. Trump suffered one of the worst days of his presidency as Michael Cohen, his former personal attorney, pleaded guilty to a number of charges and said he had acted at Trump’s direction to make hush payments to two women in violation of campaign finance laws. The same day a federal jury convicted former Trump campaign manager Paul Manafort on tax and bank fraud charges. But the legal turmoil caused barely a ripple on Wall Street. Stocks teetered between small gains and losses. Wall Street can’t seem to figure out the severity of the legal problems, and

…This bull market now the longest in US history. Manafort guilty. Cohen pleads guilty and implicates Trump in election violations and obstruction. Microsoft says Russians continue to hack. Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 08-21-2018 DOW + 63 = 25,822 SPX + 5 = 2862 NAS + 38 = 7859 RUT + 19 = 1718 10 Y + .02 = 2.84% OIL + .89 = 67.32 GOLD + 5.40 = 1196.50   New intraday record highs for the S&P 500, the Dow transports, and the Russell 2000. The S&P 500 hit an intraday high of 2873. The record closing high for the S&P is 2872. The Russell 2000 rallied to an intraday record of 1,722. The Dow Jones Transportation Average hit an intraday peak at 11,475, marking the transport gauge’s first high since Jan. 16. The Dow industrials and the Nasdaq Composite are getting closer to record highs.   Since March 9, 2009, which marked the low of the financial crisis and which many consider the birth date of the current bull market, the S&P 500 has advanced 320%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average has risen 286% and the Nasd

…Longest bull market can’t shake the correction. China-US trade talk talk. Trump wants cheap money Fed. Greece finishes bailout era but not out of the austerity era. DOW + 89 = 25,758 SPX + 6 = 2857 NAS + 4 = 7821 RUT + 5 = 1698 10 Y – .05 = 2.82% OIL + .17 = 66.60 GOLD + 5.50 = 1191.10   The Dow Industrial Average entered correction territory on Feb 8, when it dropped 10% from its recent peak. Since then, the Dow has failed to trade 10% above the closing low of 23,533 hit on Mar. 23. The Dow has been in correction territory for a long time, but it might be on the verge of a break out with a close above 25,886, or you could look at the previous high of 26. Or that previous high of 26,616 from January 26. Both levels will provide resistance. Also, just because the Dow and S&P are into correction territory, it doesn’t mean the end of the bull market. The bull market turns 3,453 days old this Wednesday. Barring a 20 percent decline between now and then, it would mark the longest bull market in history. A correct

…Talk of trade talks. Copper – the canary in the coal mine. Consumer sentiment slips. Short-termitis in earnings reports. Corporate governance. Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 08-17-2018 DOW + 110 = 25,669 SPX + 9 = 2850 NAS + 9 = 7816 RUT + 7 = 1692 10 Y un = 2.87% OIL + .46 = 65.92 GOLD + 10.90 = 1185.60   For the week, the Dow industrials gained about 1.3%. The S&P 500 is up 0.6 percent this week, but the Nasdaq showed a loss. Investors pulled money from both stock and bond funds in the past week, and shifted money within U.S. equities to health care and out of tech and financials. According to Bank of America Merrill Lynch, investors pulled $3.6 billion out of equity mutual funds and ETFs, with $2.6 billion out of U.S. stocks. But as investors took a defensive posture on stocks, they also dumped government debt, with net outflows of $1.5 billion from Treasuries and government bonds, the biggest since December 2016. Overall, bonds lost a total of $2.3 billion. BofA notes that the top five performing s

…Dow has best day in months. China will talk about trade. Turkey continues meltdown. EM struggles. Walmart rules. Nordstrom racks a beat. JC Penney hardly worth a penny. Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 08-16-2018 DOW + 396 = 25,558 SPX + 22 = 2840 NAS + 32 = 7806 RUT + 15 = 1685 10 Y + .02 = 2.87% OIL + .01 = 65.47 GOLD – 1.00 = 1174.70   The best day for the Dow Industrial average since April 10. The S&P and Nasdaq had nice gains, but nothing unusual. The Nasdaq was unable to recover its losses from yesterday. The big winners in the Dow were Boeing, Caterpillar, Apple, and Walmart – in that order. So the gains were more about tariffs than Walmart’s earnings.   A Chinese trade delegation will visit the US this month to kick off a new round of talks, the first since negotiations broke down two months ago. Washington has imposed tariffs on $50 billion worth of Chinese goods, prompting Beijing to retaliate. Trump’s administration is threatening further tariffs on $200 billion of Chinese goods, in a bid to p

…Trade wars backfire. Who pays? Retail sales up. Productivity up. Inventories up (a little). Homebuilder confidence slips. Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 08-15-2018 DOW – 137 = 25,162 SPX – 21 = 2818 NAS – 96 = 7774 RUT – 21 = 1670 10 y – .04 = 2.85% OIL – 2.16 = 64.88 GOLD – 19.00 = 1175.70   Earlier, the Dow Industrial Average dropped under 25,000 – the Dow was down more than 300 points at session lows. The problem du jour is Turkey, which just keeps getting worse. And Turkey is just the tip of the iceberg; beneath the troubled waters, we can dip into the rest of the emerging markets; and beyond that we can look at the failed attempts to impose protectionist trade policies on our trade partners and allies. Turkey doubled tariffs on some U.S. imports, and China lodged a complaint with the World Trade Organization against American trade policies.   New data provides tangible evidence that some elements of Trump’s trade wars are backfiring. Prices for agricultural exports fell 5.3% in July, the biggest d

…Stocks bounce. Turkey? Home Depot shines. Household debt increases. Collections drop. CBO forecasts 3.1% growth this year. Wages have been stuck in neutral for 45 years. Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 08-14-2018 DOW + 112 = 25,299 SPX + 18 = 2839 NAS + 51 = 7870 RUT + 17 = 1692 10 Y + .02 = 2.89% OIL – .48 = 66.72 GOLD + .60 = 1194.70 Stocks snapped a 4-day string of losses Yesterday we said the problems in Turkey really should not plague the US stock market. The country’s currency, the lira, has fallen sharply, dropping more than 25 percent in the past week to a record low, though it recovered somewhat today. Sure, the collapse of the lira was a legitimate concern, but Turkey is not a major trade partner. Turkish president Erdogan called for a boycott of American made electronic products. Apple did not flinch. There really is very little downside to having an all-out trade war with Turkey. There is danger with other countries; there is the danger of contagion.   The markets are not able to enjoy a Fed

…Stocks slide into the end of earnings season. Turkey melts down. 2008 – lasting damage. Student loan defaults grow. Tesla not quite secure. Wells Fargo, again. Def Con’s Vegas weekend. Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 08-13-2018 DOW – 125 = 25,187 SPX – 11 = 2821 NAS – 19 = 7819 RUT – 11 = 1675 10 Y + .02 = 2.88% OIL + .18 = 67.38 GOLD – 18.10 = 1194.10 The Dow and the S&P 500 index are now down for 4 consecutive trading sessions. Markets have almost worked through earnings reporting season, and prices made a good run at the previous highs from February but were unable to break out. The question is whether prices will make another run at the old highs. The S&P seems to have strong support right around 2800 – or 2803 to be more precise.   Blockbuster earnings growth has offset rising concern on Wall Street about Trump’s trade wars and crises in emerging markets, such as Turkey. Fat profits at S&P 500 companies are on track to spike by nearly 25% during the second quarter. That would tie the first quarter

…Turkey v. US. Turkey stumbles, raising contagion concerns. CPI inflation picks up, wages stagnate. US deficit balloons. Puerto Rico death toll much higher than reported. California wildfires worst ever. Catch a falling star. Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 08-10-2018 DOW – 196 = 25,313 SPX – 20 = 2833 NAS – 52 = 7839 RUT – 4 = 1686 10 Y – .08 = 2.85% OIL + .96 = 67.77 GOLD – .70 = 1212.40   Equity markets were slapped hard today, and it was even worse for emerging markets. The Dow Industrials wiped out gains for August. The Nasdaq Comp snapped an 8-day winning streak. Investors dumped stocks in favor of safe-haven Treasuries, pushing bond yields much lower and pushing the dollar higher.   The United States and Turkey, both NATO members, are at odds on a range of issues – how to fight the Islamic State group, Ankara’s plans to buy Russian missile defense systems and how to punish the alleged plotters of a failed coup in Turkey in 2016. Most recently, Trump issued sanctions on top Turkish officials over t