Financial Review

We talk with Timothy Fiore, Chair of the Institute for Supply Management Manufacturing Business Survey Committee. The April PMI at 57.3%, down 2 percentage points from March. The post Timothy Fiore – Institute for Supply Management appeared first on Eat the Bankers.com.

…Stocks drop. April stock indices post small gains. Sprint and T-Mobile announce merger, maybe. Crude oil near 4-year high. PCE inflation hits 2% target. Budget deficit climbs. AZ teacher walkout continues. Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 04-30-2018 DOW – 148 = 24,163 SPX – 21 = 2648 NAS – 53 = 7066 RUT – 14 = 1541 10 Y – .02 = 2.94% OIL + .47 = 68.57 GOLD – 7.70 = 1315.90   Stocks started the session strong – the Dow Industrials were up nearly 200 points in early trading but then the gains faded and faded some more. For the month, the Dow is up 0.25%, cutting its year-to-date loss to 2.3%. The S&P is up 0.27% in April, and down 1% in 2018, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq has tacked on 0.04% return this month, with a year-to-date advance of 2.4%. April’s gains have come as more than half of the S&P 500’s companies have posted first-quarter results, with 79% of those names beating Wall Street’s expectations for earnings. Companies that have beaten profit estimates have seen their shares rise by a paltry 0.2 per

…Stocks flounder for the week, the month, the year. Sell in May? 1Q GDP at 2.3%; consumers cut back, business picked up slack. Exxon earnings miss. Chevron beat. US Steel clobbered. AZ teacher strike Day 2. Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 04-27-2018 DOW – 11 = 24,311 SPX + 2 = 2669 NAS + 1 = 7119 RUT – 1 = 1556 10 Y – .03 = 2.96% OIL – .19 = 68.00 GOLD + 6.30 = 1323.60   For the week, the Dow fell 0.6% and the Nasdaq lost 0.4%. The S&P closed down a mere 0.01%, however, that was enough for all three to post their first weekly decline of the past three. Three large-capitalization internet and technology companies (Amazon, Microsoft, and Intel) reported better-than-expected results, and while the stocks mostly gained in response, they ended well off their highs and the advances didn’t spark a broader rally. Exxon Mobil dragged energy companies lower to end an uneven week on Wall Street. So far this month, the Dow is up 0.9% while the S&P 500 is up 1.1% and the Nasdaq has gained 0.8%. Historically, April is

…Earnings dominate trading. Amazon with a blowout. Microsoft beats. Intel wins with cloud chips. Starbucks struggles. Tariffs still a concern. Wells Fargo, again, GDP report tomorrow. AZ teachers strike. Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 04-26-2018 DOW + 238 = 24,322 SPX + 27 = 2666 NAS + 114 = 7118 RUT + 7 = 1557 10 Y – .05 = 2.98% OIL + .02 = 68.21 GOLD – 6.30 = 1317.30   Earnings continued to dominate trading today.   Amazon made $1.6 billion in profit during the first three months of 2018, more than double the same period a year earlier. The estimate among analysts was that Amazon’s profit would shrink from the prior year. There has been a tendency for Amazon to re-invest in their own business and cutting into profit. Amazon did invest in costly fulfillment centers and original programming and they still posted blowout profits.  Amazon’s sales for the quarter hit $51 billion, up 43% year over year, fueled in part by strong growth in its cloud computing business, Amazon Web Services. The division saw sa

…10-yr. yield holds above 3%. Earnings season in full bloom: Boeing, Facebook, AMD, Qualcomm, Ford, Chipotle, AT&T, Comcast, and more. Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 04-25-2018 DOW + 59 = 24,083 SPX + 4 = 2639 NAS – 3 = 7003 RUT – 2 = 1550 10 Y + .03 = 3.03% OIL + .34 = 68.04 GOLD – 7.20 = 1323.60   This was an up and down session. Boeing rose 4.2 percent after reporting quarterly results that easily beat analyst expectations. The stock’s rise helped the Dow bounce back from a 201.05-point deficit and snap a five-day losing streak. Wall Street still seems jittery about bond yields. The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield traded at 3.03 percent after breaking above 3 percent for the first time since 2014 on Tuesday. Investors are worried rising borrowing costs may slow the economy. Also, with the S&P 500 dividend yield at 1.9 percent, a risk-free investment like U.S. Treasuries yielding 3 percent makes more sense in a volatile environment. But that reasoning is weak. The play assumes holding the bond to dur

….Ten-year Treasury note tops 3%. Stocks fall. Earnings disappoint. Cat sees problems with tariffs hitting pricing.  FANGs give up market cap. Apple down on weak demand. 3M can’t stick. Home prices up faster than wages. Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 04-24-2018 DOW – 424 = 24,024 SPX – 35 = 2634 NAS – 121 = 7007 RUT – 8 = 1553 10 Y + .03 = 3.00% OIL – .92 = 67.72 GOLD + 5.60 = 1330.80   The 10-year Treasury yield finally reached 3 percent, a milestone that bond traders were eyeing for months. We knew 3% was coming. The Federal Reserve has telegraphed that rates would move higher and then followed the messaging with gradual, incremental action. Rates are rising, but perhaps not in a hurry. JPMorgan Chase estimates the 10-year yield will end 2018 at 3.15 percent. Goldman Sachs, which has been one of the more aggressive in calling for Federal Reserve rate hikes, reiterated its 3.25 percent year-end call this week. Wall Street sees that rates are rising, but slowly. So, why did 3% spark a selloff? What was

….Bond prices fall. Fed may have 4 hikes in 2018. Existing home sales pick up in March. Job openings but no raises. Alphabet beats big. Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 04-23-2018   DOW – 14 = 24,448 SPX + 0.15 = 2670 NAS – 17 = 7128 RUT – 2 = 1562 10 Y + .02 = 2.98% OIL + .53 = 68.93 GOLD – 11.00 = 1325.20   Bond prices fell, with the 10-year note yield hitting its highest in over four years – topping 2.98%. The reason for the selloff? Take your pick: the growing supply of government debt, accelerating inflation, higher oil and commodity prices, trade policy concerns. Also, the Fed is raising its short-term lending rate as the U.S. economy strengthens, after holding it near-zero in the wake of the financial crisis. The three rate hikes last year pushed up two- and five-year Treasury yields in particular, but they’ve also affected 10-year yields as central bankers expect more boosts this year. Higher yields make the burden of everything from mortgages to student loans and car payments even heavier – and t

…Stocks dip ahead of a big earnings week. Wells Fargo’s $1 billion fine. Payday lenders skate. AZ teachers strike. Students walk out of class for gun reform. The 420 break. Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 04-20-2018 DOW – 201 = 24,462 SPX – 22 = 2670 NAS – 91 = 7146 RUT – 9 = 1564 10 Y + .04 = 2.95% OIL – .03 = 68.26 GOLD – 10.10 = 1336.20   Despite today’s declines, the 3 major stock indices gained about a half a percent for the week. The 10-year Treasury yield reached its highest level since January 2014 as a bond selloff continued for a second day, driving the yield curve steeper after two weeks of flattening. Meanwhile, the two-year yield hit 2.46 percent, its highest level since Sept. 8, 2008.   Procter & Gamble fell 2.9 percent on top of a 4.2 percent drop the day before when it said shrinking retailer inventories and higher costs squeezed its margins. Philip Morris also had a second day of declines after getting crushed due to weak shipment volumes in its quarterly report.   Apple fell 4.1 percent

Sinclair Noe talks with Peter Cohan, author of “Startup Cities: Why Only a Few Cities Dominate the Global Startup Scene and What the Rest Should Do About It” The post Peter Cohan – Startup Cities appeared first on Eat the Bankers.com.

….Stocks end lower. Bonds down, 10-yr yield tops 2.9%. Commodities rise. Bidding war for Shire. LEI inches higher. Retail sales up. AZ unemployment rate flat. Wells Fargo v. teachers. Cuba, not Castro. Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 04-19-2018 DOW – 83 = 24664 SPX – 15 = 2693 NAS – 57 = 7238 RUT – 9 = 1573 10 Y + .05 = 2.91% OIL – .32 = 68.15 GOLD – 3.90 = 1346.30   Stocks ended lower, with consumer staples, real estate and technology shares leading the losses. Investors continued to digest a mixed bag of corporate earnings. While results have largely come in ahead of expectations thus far, there have been some disappointments, and others haven’t produced the kind of blowout results seen necessary to continue pushing shares higher from elevated levels. Financials and energy shares were the only industry groups closing in the green. Financials rallied 1.5%. The S&P 500 components are expected to see earnings growth of 17.3% for the period, the fastest rate of expansion since 2011. The results have been e

….Oil jumps on draw downs. $3 a gallon soon. Morgan Stanley delivers but fails to wow. Beige Book concerns on tariffs. Amazon 100 million Prime. Puerto Rico blackout, again. Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 04-18-2018 DOW + 6 = 24,793 SPX + 9 = 2715 NAS + 36 = 7317 RUT + 9 = 1588 10 Y + .05 = 2.87% OIL + 2.23 = 68.75 GOLD + 2.00 = 1350.20   Stocks drifted and floated along for most of the session; a little up; not much of a move. The Nasdaq and Russell outperformed the Dow blue chips, which were weighed down by IBM, which lost 7.5%. The drop comes after IBM reported better-than-expected results for its first quarter, though the beat came due to a one-time tax gain – and full-year guidance was below expectations. Shares of IBM are down 12% over the past 12 months, while the Dow is up about 21%. The good news is that the major indices have moved above some key resistance levels, and they held, at least for today.   The big move in the markets today came in the energy sector, with WTI crude up almost 3.5%. O

…..Stocks rally, back in the green for 2018. Earnings lead the way. Netflix boffo. UnitedHealth lead insurers. Goldman beats but falls. Starbucks will undergo training. Housing starts jump. Tax cut bill widely disliked. IRS website breaks on Tax Day. Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 04-17-2018 DOW + 213 = 24,786 SPX + 28 = 2706 NAS + 124 = 7281 RUT + 16 = 1579 10 Y – .02 = 2.81 OIL + .44 = 66.66 GOLD + 1.70 = 1348.20   Stocks rallied for a second day, thanks in part to better-than-expected earnings from industry heavyweights – notably Netflix and Untied Healthcare. And it is worth noting, despite blockbuster Goldman Sachs earnings – banks underperformed today. The S&P 500 rose to the highest in four weeks, moving above its 50-day moving average. The S&P 500 Index is up 4.82 percent over the past two weeks. All major US equity indices are now back in the green for 2018. West Texas crude traded above $66 a barrel. Treasury yields edged lower. The yield on the 2-year note is at 2.39% and the 10-year note is

…No geopolitical collapse, stocks rally. Retail sales up. Inventories higher. 2-yr. note yield highest in almost a decade. Earnings look good, but priced in already. Netflix adds users. BofA has record profits. Suspicious groups on Facebook. Merck scores with immunotherapy. Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 04-16-2018 DOW + 212 = 24,573 SPX + 21 = 2677 NAS + 49 = 7156 RUT + 13 = 1563 10 Y  un = 2.83% OIL – 1.05 = 66.34 GOLD + .10 = 1346.50   The price of oil fell as traders started to see a decreased likelihood of further escalation between Western powers and Syria, following Friday night’s air strikes. A coalition of the USA, UK, and France led targeted strikes on bases in Syria on Friday evening. British foreign secretary Boris Johnson told the media that the UK has no current plans for more strikes, while Trump tweeted over the weekend “Mission Accomplished!” So, it was a quick, minor action that did not disrupt oil supplies in the region, and prices dropped.   Any Russian retaliation appears to be limi

…Banks kick off earnings season with beats, but fail to reflect a strong economy. TPP on the table again. Scooter Libby pardon. No pot crackdown. Amazon v. White House continued. Arizona to hike teacher pay. Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 04-13-2018 DOW – 122 = 24,360 SPX – 7 = 2656 NAS – 33 = 7106 RUT – 7 = 1549 10Y – .01 = 2.83% OIL + .23 = 67.30 GOLD + 11.10 = 1346.40   Despite today’s decline, the major averages posted strong gains for the week. The Dow and S&P 500 rose 1.8 percent and 2 percent this week, respectively, while the Nasdaq advanced 2.8 percent.   JPMorgan Chase kicked off earnings season for the big banks, reporting earnings per share of $2.37 versus analysts’ estimates of $2.27 per share. The bank reported net revenue of $28.5 billion, compared to $25.8 billion the bank posted in the same period a year ago.   Citigroup reported a higher-than-expected quarterly profit, driven by strength in its consumer banking business and a surge in equities trading. Citi’s net income rose 13 percent

Sinclair Noe interviews Jeffrey Pfeffer, author of “Dying for a Paycheck: How Modern Management Harms Employee Health and Company Performance;and What We Can Do About It” The post Jeffrey Pfeffer – Dying for a Paycheck appeared first on Eat the Bankers.com.

…About face on Syria. About face on TPP. The Fed and inflation. Banks kick off earnings season. Delta, Blackrock deliver. Bed, Bath & Beyond Bad. Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 04-12-2018   DOW + 293 = 24,438 SPX + 21 = 2663 NAS + 71 = 7140 RUT + 10 = 1557 10 Y + .04 = 2.83% OIL + .37 = 67.19 GOLD – 18.50 = 1335.30   Cry ‘Havoc,’ and let slip the dogs of war; or not. Yesterday, there was the threat of missiles flying in Syria, with the implication that we could see Russia and Iran drawn into a nasty confrontation. Trump tweeted what amounted to a threat, or maybe a warning, to Russia to get ready. Today, a complete reversal. Trump tweeted “Never said when an attack on Syria would take place. Could be very soon or not so soon at all!”   I’m not sure where that leaves us, but apparently no missiles flying today is a good thing for Wall Street. But Wall Street has many concerns – for example, a possible trade war with China. Trump, in another sharp reversal, told a gathering of farm state lawmakers and gov

…Fed minutes point to more rate hikes. CPI inflation heats up a little. Tweets fly, volatility rules. Gas prices rise with Middle East tensions. Facebook and your lack of privacy. Ryan retiring. Boehner goes green. Payday lenders v. CFPB. Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 04-11-2018 DOW – 218 = 24,189 SPX – 14 = 2642 NAS – 25 = 7069 RUT + 3 = 1546 10 Y – .01 = 2.79% OIL + 1.30 = 66.81 GOLD + 13.70 = 1353.80   The good news is that the Dow is holding above 24,000; the Nasdaq is still above 7000; and the S&P 500 is still above 2581. The volatility is crazy. The markets are up one day, down the next, sometimes up and down in the same day. That discomfort in your portfolio and pain in your neck is the result of whiplash. And it doesn’t really make sense because the economy is in pretty good shape. So says the Fed. Today, the Fed released minutes from the March 20-21 FOMC meeting. All of the Federal Reserve’s policymakers felt that the U.S. economy would firm further, and that inflation would rise in the coming

…Stocks rally on kind words from Xi. Mueller in the crosshairs. Wagging the dog in Syria. Facebook theater. And oil moves higher. Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 04-10-2018 DOW + 428 = 24,408 SPX + 43 = 2656 NAS + 143 = 7094 RUT + 28 = 1543 10 Y + .01 = 2.80% OIL + 2.16 = 65.58 GOLD + 3.40 = 1340.10   Stocks moved higher with a nice rally to start the trading session, after Chinese President Xi Jinping promised to open the country’s economy further and lower import tariffs on products including cars, in a speech seen as an attempt to defuse an escalating trade dispute with the United States. Xi said that China will sharply widen market access for foreign investors.   Xi portrayed China as committed to opening its economy as he presented an alternative vision to Trump’s calls for tariffs and restricting trade, urging “dialogue rather than confrontation.” Speaking publicly for the first time since the beginning of an escalating trade dispute between his country and the United States, Xi said, “The Cold War

Despite concerns about Syria, trade wars and earnings season, stocks started higher and then fell back. FBI raids Michael Cohen’s office. CBO forecasts massive debt explosion. IMF and labor force participation. Mr. Zuckerberg goes to Washington. Green Apple. Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 04-09-2018 DOW + 46 = 23,979 SPX + 8 = 2613 NAS + 35 = 6950 RUT + 1 = 1514 10 Y + .01 = 2.79% OIL + 1.23 = 63.29 GOLD + 2.30 = 1336.70   Last week finished with a disappointing jobs report, and this week started with ongoing concerns about a possible trade war and geopolitical concerns and earnings season – but stocks started the morning strong and moved higher – like Sisyphus rolling the boulder up the hill …, until the final hour of trade, when stock prices came rolling back down the hill. At one point, the Dow was up about 440 points Trump says there will be a “big price to pay” for Syrian President Bashar al-Assad’s suspected use of chemical weapons in the rebel-controlled town of Douma outside Damascus, which kill

…103,000 new jobs in March – missing expectations. 4.1% unemployment rate. Wages inch up. Still slack in labor market. Tariff troubles loom. Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 04-06-2018 DOW – 572 = 23,932 SPX – 58 = 2604 NAS – 161 = 6915 RUT – 29 = 1513 10 Y – .06 = 2.78 OIL – 1.59 = 61.59 GOLD + 7.20 = 1334.40   The economy gained just 103,000 new jobs in March, well short of estimates for 185,000. The unemployment rate was unchanged at 4.1% for the sixth straight month. March was the 90th consecutive month of job growth, by far the longest streak on record. The number of new jobs for February was revised up 13,000 to 326,000. The January jobs number was revised lower by 63,000 to 176,000. While the report was disappointing, there can be big swings from month to month. The economy added an average of 202,000 jobs a month in the first quarter. On average, the US has added 188,000 jobs each month in the past year. The month-to-month numbers can jump around because of anything from bad weather to an oddly ti