Climas - Southwest Climate Podcast

In the March 2023 edition of the Southwest Climate Podcast, Mike Crimmins and Zack Guido still have plenty to talk about!  The pod starts out with a recap of the month of March’s precipitation and temperature followed by a discussion of whether ENSO played a role.  Then they plow (pun intended) into the ‘Big Winter Stories’ covering historical snowpack, atmospheric rivers, extremes and drought.  Stick around for the streamflow conversation as well as what Mike and Zack are looking forward to.    Mentions: Southeast Regional Climate Center - Climate Perspectives Tool – Western Region NOAA ENSO Blog: “Did La Niña drench the Southwest United States in early winter 2022/23?” SCRIPPS Center For Western Weather and Water Extremes (CW3E) - Atmospheric River Tally NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI) Photo from Mammoth Mountain Rutz et. al. "Climatological Characteristics of Atmospheric Rivers and Their Inland Penetration over the Western United States" U.S. Drought Monitor   ("Generation

In the February 2023 edition of the Southwest Climate Podcast, Mike Crimmins and Zack Guido return after a bit of a hiatus, and have a lot to talk about (buckle up!).  Across the pod, they recap the winter conditions in the Southwest, talk about how this did/did-not live up to expectations for a La Niña winter, the effect some really widespread winter storm activity had across the western US, and what this means for snowpack and water supply going into spring. CLIMAS Member(s):   Michael Crimmins Zack Guido Ben McMahan

In the November episode of the Southwest Climate Podcast, Mike Crimmins and Zack Guido check in with some extended weather/transition events over the last few months, and how this relates to monsoon-like vs. fall and winter events. They work through a set of possible scenarios for winter, and what we might expect with the current (triple dip!) La Nina event already underway, but with a likely transition to ENSO-neutral by early 2023. They bring back the 'hazard report' to talk through the kinds of weather events and hazards we might see over winter, and wrap with a discussion of the winter forecasts and what we'll be watching over winter to track how the season progresses.  They also chat briefly about Ben McMahan (that's me!) changing jobs and having left UA in October (I'll keep helping with the podcast for who knows how long, but it's too much fun each month to let go easily, so we're exploring our options!). CLIMAS Member(s):   Ben McMahan Michael Crimmins Zack Guido

A note on the podcast, especially to those in our UA community that are grieving. We mourn the loss of our friend and colleague, Tom Meixner, who was killed on the University of Arizona campus on October 5th, 2022. We recorded the podcast the day before, and our tone reflects our joyful enthusiasm for weather and climate in the Southwest, something that Tom certainly shared. We wanted to acknowledge this tragic event and express our heartfelt condolences to his family, friends, and colleagues. We’ll miss you, Tom. In the October 2022 edition of the Southwest Climate Podcast, Mike Crimmins and Zack Guido sit down to discuss where 2022 stands in relation to other years, landing on 2022 as a sneaky candidate for one of the best SW-regional monsoons, ever.  They talk through the various ways one might assess monsoon performance, what happened in September, and how to make sense of all the lingering storm activity in early October, despite the monsoon being officially over. They wrap with a quick nod to wi

In the September episode of the Southwest Climate Podcast, Mike Crimmins and Zack Guido catch up on where the monsoon ranks through August, and what September might bring (and how that might affect those rankings). After a tour of regional stats and how various parts of the Southwest are faring with the monsoon, Zack and Mike take a deeper dive into some comparisons with previous monsoon years, to see where 2022 stacks up, and how one might go about identifying the top 3-4 monsoons, based on coverage, intensity, and how sustained the precipitation was in that year. They wrap with a quick discussion of monsoon fantasy and what the forecasts hint at for the rest of September and into Fall. If you want to play along and rank your top 3-4 monsoons, Mike's maps of past monsoon years and the NWS Tucson Monsoon Tracker are great resources to take a closer look at spatial coverage and station records and ranks.  New UA Coop Extension Bulletin "Guide to Southwest US Station Climate Summaries" and find the summarie

In this episode of The Southwest Climate Podcast, Mike Crimmins and Zack Guido sit down to talk through the last month of monsoon activity, how the monsoon is performing around the region (and at their houses). They follow up with some discussions of MCV/MCS dynamics based on a listener question and try to make the case whether this is a good monsoon or a bad monsoon.  Finally, they dive back into the monsoon fantasy game to see how the first month looks with a few days to go.  Two notes: Monsoon Fantasy Game: If you are reading this (or listening) before Aug 1, you still have time to log your August guesses for the Monsoon Fantasy Game: monsoonfantasy.arizona.edu/ Listener Survey: We have a short (5 min) survey for our listeners (or prospective listeners) and would very much appreciate some brief and anonymous info that will let us know how folks use the podcast, and what we can do to improve it.  Find the survey at: tinyurl.com/swclimatepod

In the June 2022 episode of the Southwest Climate Podcast, Mike Crimmins and Zack Guido apologize for the extended (and unintentional) break from podcasting, before diving into to a wide ranging "catch-up" episode that recaps winter and spring conditions, discusses regional hazards we see in spring into summer, and touches on the forecast and outlook for the summer...and the monsoon! They wrap with a discussion of the monsoon, whether this year could ever live up to last year and what led to last year's conditions, before addressing the excitement that a few outlooks have caused, and the early storms that have been building to the south. They also discuss the return of the Monsoon Fantasy Game and talk about how you can play and test your forecast skills against the "experts".  Happy Monsoon!  For more information on the monsoon, be sure to check out the updated Monsoon Tracker from NWS Tucson: https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/twc/monsoon/monsoon_tracker.php. Monsoon Fantasy Forecast Game The monsoon fantasy f

This episode is a break from the Southwest Climate Podcast, but Zack and Mike will be back in April to talk all things Southwest Climate.  In this special episode, Gigi Owen sits down for one on one conversations with Moriah Bailey Stephenson, Simone Williams, and Lea Schram von Haupt (the 2021 CLIMAS E&S Grad Fellows) to chat with each of them about their reflections and perspectives and their fellowship experience. You can also find more information about their projects in blog posts at climas.arizona.edu/blog. CLIMAS Member(s):   Bailey Stephenson Ben McMahan Gigi Owen Lea Schram von Haupt Simone A. Williams

In the Mar 2022 edition of the CLIMAS Southwest Climate Podcast, Mike Crimmins and Zack Guido dive into a recap of winter (so far) in the Southwest. First, recap winter to date, and put it in the context of a double-dip La Niña, including precipitation totals, temperature, and snowpack. Then they take a closer look at the phases of the PNA (Pacific/North American pattern) and how this links to ENSO/La Niña and the weather conditions this winter. Finally, they revisit temperature to consider just how "cold" it has actually been, and preview a closer look at fire outlooks, snowpack, and water supply in upcoming podcasts. CLIMAS Member(s):   Ben McMahan Michael Crimmins Zack Guido

In the January 2022 edition of the CLIMAS Southwest Climate Podcast, Mike Crimmins and Zack Guido dive into the winter weather so far, tracking how this lines up with expectations in a La Niña year, and what to track this winter to look for La Nina effects - temperature, snow water equivalent, streamflow forecasts, etc.  They also take a closer look at the jetstream and the role this plays in winter weather in the Southwest, and where these recent events (and the monsoon) leave us in terms of drought.  They wrap with some discussion of the outlooks for the next month/season, as well as some obligatory pining for the monsoon. Discussed in this episode: The Climatology of Synoptic-Scale Ascent over Western North America: A Perspective on Storm Tracks (Loreau & Horel, 2012) https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-11-00203.1

In the December/Holiday edition of the CLIMAS Southwest Climate Podcast, Mike Crimmins and Zack Guido sit down for a quick look at the weather of the last month or so, some recent events bringing winter storms to the region, and what a La Nina might bring in the rest of 2021 and through the rest of winter 2022. They also reflect on 2021 and memorable events in the Southwest, and not surprisingly, this brings them both back to monsoon 2021. Thanks again to everyone who listens and supports the podcast, we hope everyone has a happy, restful, and safe holiday.   See you in 2022!

In the November edition of the CLIMAS Southwest Climate Podcast, Mike Crimmins and Zack Guido look back to monsoon 2021 to do a recap of the seasonal totals.  They are joined by Paul Iniguez, the Science and Operations Officer for the National Weather Service office in Phoenix, to take a closer look at the 2021 monsoon, how it stacked up around the region, and to hear a bit more about how the NWS offices work across the monsoon. This is a single focus episode - see the Oct 2021 episode for the normal monthly roundup and recap. Watch this space: https://www.weather.gov/psr/eventsummaries for the 2021 monsoon recap from NWS Phoenix, as well as some detailed storm event reports from across the season (and year).

In the October 2021 edition of the Southwest Climate Podcast, Mike Crimmins and Zack Guido reconvene after a long pause to revisit recent conditions in September and October, dive into what ENSO and La Niña might have in store for the Southwest, and what the Double Dip is and why it's more likely in back to back La Niñas.  For monsoon fantasy players, they recap the monsoon game and how the leaderboard shook up in the final day in the first segment.  Production note: We recorded two podcasts this week, the standard monthly recap (this podcast) and a monsoon recap extravaganza with Paul Iniguez of the NWS office up in Phoenix.  Look for that monsoon recap podcast in a few days (also in this feed) and keep an eye on the NWS pages for their in-depth monsoon recaps.

In the September Edition of the CLIMAS Southwest Climate Podcast, Mike Crimmins and Zack Guido sit down to revisit last month's discussion of a generational monsoon. They check in around the region to see how various locations are faring and discuss the interesting patterns they've seen in monsoon activity so far. They put the totals to date into climatological context and rankings, to see who is experiencing a generational monsoon, vs. areas that are "just" above average (or who are lagging behind).  They wrap with a discussion of "Is the Monsoon Over" - and talk about the reasons why you may/may not think so, and what the transition season means for the last few weeks of the monsoon (and the final seasonal rankings).

In the August 2021 edition of the CLIMAS Southwest Climate Podcast, Mike Crimmins and Zack Guido sit down to discuss the "monsoon that comes to you" (i.e. it's just about everywhere, and it just keeps coming!).  They discuss the (record) July for some areas, as well as the well above average conditions around much of the region. They also deconstruct the elements that are feeding into this persistent monsoon rainfall and take a deep dive into a few of the events that have contributed to impressive totals.  They wrap up with a discussion of outlooks for the rest of the season, whether any stations might hit record monsoon totals (Tucson is definitely in the running), and what this has meant for the monsoon fantasy game (suffice to say, the guesses for July did not anticipate the record wet conditions). Resources Discussed: https://cals.arizona.edu/climate/misc/SWMonsoonMaps/current/swus_monsoon.html https://www.weather.gov/psr/StormReportfor2126July2021 https://monsoon.environment.arizona.edu/ https://

In the (mid/late) July edition of the CLIMAS Southwest Climate Podcast, Mike Crimmins and Zack Guido are back at it, given all that happened with the monsoon since early July.  First, they dive into monsoon conditions around the region, to put them into climatological perspective, while discussing some of the defining characteristics of the monsoon. Next they grapple with the question: Is this shaping up to be an all-timer for July, given all the rain that's already fallen (and what is in the forecast for the rest of July)?  The answer is complicated (tune in to hear where they land on this).  Finally, they look a bit at the forecasts and outlooks for the upcoming weeks and months and remind us about the monsoon fantasy game that we are running this monsoon. A reminder from the Southwest Monsoon Fantasy Forecasts game: We pose this question to you: will August be wet, dry, or in between at stations around the Southwest? So far, the monsoon has been wet in many places, with an active monsoon pattern over

In the June/early-July edition of the CLIMAS Southwest Climate Podcast, Mike Crimmins and Zack Guido sit down to discuss weather and climate in the Southwest.  They start with June heatwaves, and where these sit in comparison to climatology/normal for the Southwest, and how they differ from the record heat waves seen in the Pacific Northwest.  They transition to a discussion of the early(ish) onset of the monsoon this year, and whether this bodes well for a better monsoon than last year (frankly, this is a low bar to clear).  Finally, they recap their own (forecast) guesses for July and run through the Southwest Monsoon Fantasy Forecast game we are trying out this year. https://monsoonfantasy.arizona.edu/ We plan to do another podcast in mid/late July to see where things stand with the monsoon, but so far, so good (or at least better than last year).

In the May 2021 edition of the CLIMAS Southwest Climate Podcast, Mike Crimmins and Zack Guido sit down to discuss a range of issues related to that most pressing question this time of year - "What's the Monsoon Forecast?!".  They run through the last month of weather, what we might expect from June given historical patterns and extremes, and how much faith we can put in forecasts this time of year (hint, it's tough to make a good monsoon forecast). The podcast wraps with a reminder about the Southwest Monsoon Fantasy Forecast game. We piloted the game last year, and this year there's a new and improved interface and some fun prizes.  Stay tuned to the end of the podcast (or watch this space) for details on the game (how to play, prizes, etc.). 

In the April 2021 episode of the CLIMAS Southwest Climate Podcast, Mike Crimmins and Zack Guido jump into winter weather and assessments of (drought) conditions.  First, they look back at winter so far and see how it stacks up to recent historical totals. Next, they take a closer look at the relationship between summer and winter precipitation, and the various phase combinations (wet/dry, dry/wet, wet/wet, dry/dry). They turn to some paleoclimate expertise to help them think about these patterns, as well as how drought has been defined (seasonal drought, megadrought, etc.), and how these terms get used in science communication and the media.

In the Mar 2021 edition of the CLIMAS Southwest Climate Podcast, Mike Crimmins and Zack Guido sit down to discuss the winter in the Southwest, and whether it lived up to expectations for a La Niña winter. They also go over streamflow, snowpack, and start a deeper dive into reservoirs, based on a listener question from last month (send in your questions if you have them!). They dabble a bit in the seasonal forecasts and talk about some of the key things they will be watching over the next 3-4 months, namely how fire season evolves, and when we can (reasonably) start looking ahead towards monsoon onset. They wrap up with a brief preview of monsoon-game 2.0, and hint at what we have planned.