Climas - Southwest Climate Podcast

In the March 2017 episode of the CLIMAS Southwest Climate Podcast, Mike Crimmins and Zack Guido discuss the winter season in the Southwest - with an eye towards how Arizona and New Mexico have fared (temperature, precipitation, snowpack, streamflow forecasts, etc.), as well as to the exceptional events taking place in California and across the Intermountain West.  They also try to put this "La Niña" into context, how it did (or did not) meet expectations, and whether that even matters at this point, as well as what the rumblings of El Niño might mean for the rest of the Spring (and 2017 overall).  Materials discussed in this podcast:   CLIMAS Member(s):   Ben McMahan Michael Crimmins Zack Guido

In this episode of the CLIMAS Southwest Climate Podcast, Mike Crimmins and Zack Guido talk about the last few months of weather in the Southwest, and how it doesn't quite look like we might have expected given borderline La Niña conditions. They also discuss the recent run of storms, and what this might mean for drought, as well as the decay of La Niña and what this might mean for the rest of the winter in the Southwest.  They share their mix of optimism given the weak/decaying La Niña, and pessimism given how dry the Southwest can be even under normal conditions.  They also dive into a discussion of other models that inform our perspective on regional weather and climate (PDO, MJO).

In the December (Holiday!) edition of the CLIMAS Southwest Climate Podcast, Mike Crimmins and Zack Guido discuss the last few months of (warm, mostly dry) weather in the Southwest, what the season may hold given the "weak" La Niña conditions that may (or may not) be sticking around through the early part of 2017, and how the impacts we look for in the Southwest are connected to much larger regional and global phenomena - Atmospheric Rivers & the Polar Vortex (respectively).

In the November edition of the CLIMAS Southwest Climate Podcast, Mike Crimmins and Zack Guido cover a range of topics, including: A recap the last month of weather in the Southwest (including our hot and dry October and what the first half of November brought),  A look back at the water year (Oct 1 2015 - Sep 30 2016) to discuss how the Southwest fared, and what this perspective lends to our understanding of SW climate, A look forward to La Niña - what the models are saying, as well as what these patterns might mean for winter in the Southwest.  

In this episode of the CLIMAS SW Climate Podcast, Mike Crimmins and Zack Guido recap the Southwestern monsoon, with an eye towards how various regions of the Southwest fared in terms of storm events and seasonal totals. They also discuss the different events that contribute to seasonal totals during the official monsoon (June 15 - Sept 30), as well as what some of the best case and worst case monsoon totals might look like in a thought experiment regarding monsoon extremes.  They close out with a brief discussion of La Niña (or the lack thereof), and a look towards what fall and winter might have in store given the current (uncertain) conditions.

In the August episode of the CLIMAS Southwest Climate Podcast, Mike Crimmins and Zack Guido take a closer look at the monsoon in the Southwest. They recap the monsoon, they discuss the components that factor into monsoon precipitation patterns and the high degree of spatial and temporal variability of that precipitation, and the way the monsoon can fade or surge as the official season winds down, depending on how the season progresses (and how much tropical storm activity contributes to the seasonal total). Note: In what should probably be a running disclaimer for the duration of the monsoon, given the variability and unpredictability of monsoon precipitation, this podcast was recorded prior to the storms that rolled into SW Arizona in the last few days. The most salient point is that Tacna is no longer at 0.00 inches for the monsoon (as Mike mentioned in the podcast). As with last month, we'd like to take credit for the uptick in a region we called out, since these storms have a habit of popping up just a

Note: this podcast was recorded just prior to the run of storms that fired up in late July, so while Mike and Zack hint at the upcoming storms and moisture (most models were pointed towards an uptick in monsoon activity, their discussion does not cover this latest run of storms (we'll save a discussion of this event for the next podcast). We'd like to take credit for the increased monsoon activity, since these storms have a habit of popping up just after we finish recording (see last month!), but such is the inherent spatial and temporal variability of the monsoon - if it were easier to track and forecast, it wouldn't be so exciting. In this episode of the CLIMAS Southwest Climate Podcast, Mike Crimmins and Zack Guido sit down to discuss the monsoon in the Southwest, focusing on the big events that closed out June, and the relatively long "break" that followed for much of July.  After such a strong start, this extended break was especially disappointing.  They also track the building conditions that point t

In the June 2016 episode of the CLIMAS Southwest Climate Podcast, Mike Crimmins and Zack Guido look back at May and June to discuss the relatively mild weather of May, the near-record heat in June, and the transition into the monsoon.  In the second half of the podcast, they dive into the weeds on monsoon climatology and the variable spatial and temporal patterns that characterize the monsoon in the Southwest. They highlight what we might expect in the next 90 days, along with a discussion of the difficulty of creating regional monsoon season forecasts (given the high degree of spatial and temporal variability, and the randomness of weather). Please note: we recorded this podcast prior to the run of storms that hit the Southwest in the last week of June. Most of the podcast is focused on a recap of past events, or evergreen discussions of climatological features of the monsoon in the Southwest, but there are a few references to potential monsoon activity and building storms that refer to (at the time of re

In this episode of the CLIMAS Southwest Climate Podcast, Mike Crimmins and Zack Guido cover a side range of topics related to weather and climate in the Southwest, including:  The transition from winter into spring so far with a recap of weather over the past month, including the recent run of milder and wetter weather than we might expect in a normally dry period, A deeper dive on the ongoing disappointment that was El Niño, by looking closely at a preliminary analysis (Levine & McPhaden, below), and what it begins to tell us in diagnosing what happened with El Niño An exploration of the wildfire risk potential for this year, and how recent years compare, going back to the 2011 fire season, and An early start to discussing the monsoon, partly because the season is closer than we might think, but also as a way to divert attention from what Zack is calling the "doom season" (hot and dry conditions leading up to the monsoon). Online Resources How the July 2014 Easterly Wind Burst Gave the 2015-

In the early April edition of the CLIMAS Southwest Climate Podcast, Mike Crimmins and Zack Guido look back at our exceptional El Niño event, which may be standing out for all the wrong reasons - especially in the Southwest.  They discuss the anomalously warm and dry conditions the Southwest has experienced since early January; and put these conditions into context regarding our expectations in a strong El Niño year, what might be driving these patterns (and the moisture away from us), and just where that moisture has gone.  They also discuss the similarities of the current precipitation pattern to La Niña (i.e. dry in the Southwest and wet in the Northwest) but highlight how this event is very different from La Niña associated atmospheric patterns (even if the precipitation patterns feel like a La Niña year). They also point out that while we're not in a La Niña yet..but forecasts call for much higher chances of a swing to La Niña by fall of this year.  They also look forward to the rest of the spring, includ

In the February episode of the CLIMAS Southwest Climate Podcast, Zack Guido is back, and he and Mike Crimmins sit down to talk, you guessed it, El Niño.  They recap what we've seen over the past month, and take a closer look at whether this El Niño event is actually underperforming, whether expectations were set too high going into the season (Godzilla, etc.), and what we might expect for the upcoming month if we can ever break out of this high pressure system.  

In the January 2016 episode of the CLIMAS Southwest Climate Podcast, Mike Crimmins and Ben McMahan** recap the transitional weather patterns of the last few months of 2015 as we moved from Fall into Winter, and discuss whether this transitional season matched general expectations, given what is expected in an El Niño year.  They also discuss what a characteristic southwestern winter pattern looks like, and conclude the podcast with a conversation about how this El Niño event has stacked up so far this winter, and what they anticipate over the next few months. *We had a small technical difficulty with the audio quality that delayed publication until today, but the conversation is still timely/relevant especially considering the general break in winter storm activity we've seen since early January (Jan 31 notwithstanding). **Zack Guido is away on a research project but will join us again in February. CLIMAS Member(s):   Ben McMahan Michael Crimmins

In the December episode of the CLIMAS Southwest Climate Podcast Mike Crimmins and Zack Guido discuss the difficulty of characterizing a climate phenomenon (in this case El Niño) on a weather time scale, which is made difficult by the highly variable transition season we see in the Southwest in October and November.  This difficulty is especially salient as media, the general public, and climate scientists are all hungry for explanations as to whether day to day events fit into larger climate patterns (i.e. is this an El NIño related impact or not!?). They also go over the recent events of October, November, and early December, before looking forward at what the seasonal forecasts suggest is likely in store for this Winter (hint: all signs still point to a wetter than average winter!). 

In the Nov 2015 episode of the CLIMAS Southwest Climate Podcast, Zack Guido and Mike Crimmins look back on an anomalously wet October, and in particular the effect of one system that made two visits to the Southwest.  They also talk about Hurricane Patricia, and the speed at which that tropical system escalated to one of the strongest storms on record.  They also talk about October weather in terms of the seasonal transition (between monsoon summer and fall/winter patterns) and the impact of tropical storm systems, as well as the difficulty of attributing specific weather events to longer term patterns (i.e. the El Niño Southern Oscillation).  They wrap up by talking about El Niño and the seasonal forecasts, which include projections of above average precipitation in the southwest, as well as a number of global impacts.  

In this episode of The Southwest Climate Podcast, Mike Crimmins & Zack Guido recap the 2015 monsoon, (and revisit some of their predictions from earlier this summer). In part 1, they give a quick overview of the monsoon, before taking a closer look at the month by month progression, to track the overall season for what stood out (and what was underwhelming).   In part 2, they talk about nuances associated with the monsoon, including the impacts of El Niño, and eastern pacific tropical storm activity.   They conclude with a discussion of the variable nature of  the monsoon, and what makes this such an exciting place to live as we watch the season unfold. The Southwest Climate Podcast is a production of CLIMAS - Climate Assessment for the Southwest.  CLIMAS is part of the NOAA Regional Integrated Science and Assessment program, and is focused on climate research, communication, and outreach in Arizona & New Mexico, and is housed at the University of Arizona Institute of the Environment.  Mike C

Note: We had server difficulties with our podcast feed - the podcast is posted now, and is also available on iTunes. In this edition of the CLIMAS Southwest Climate Podcast, Zack Guido and Mike Crimmins focus specifically on El Niño and what we can expect going into this fall and winter, given the "strong" status of this El Niño event. Part 1: A look at the El Niño signal, including a look back at what happened in 2014 (and why El Niño didn't start when we thought it would), as well as a look forward for what El Niño might mean regionally and globally. Part 2: A close look at the 97-98 El Niño event, and what happened in the Southwest during the last "strong" El Niño event...can we expect more of the same?  What might be different? Part 3: A look at the El Niño models going into Fall 2015 and Winter 2016 - How certain are we about increased precipitation this winter?  When might we see this increase?  Any chance for a "boringly average" year, despite the El Niño signal? We'll be back at the end of S

In this episode of the CLIMAS Southwest Climate Podcast, Mike Crimmins and Zack Guido take a closer look at the 2015 monsoon so far, with thoughts on how it has fared, and what it looks like for the rest of the monsoon, particularly with El Niño looming on the horizon.  In addition to a general summary and recap, they look at spatial and temporal variability of the monsoon, some of the features that drive 'breaks' in the monsoon, and what impact El Niño might be having now, and this winter, especially if it remains a strong event.  They also talk about expectations and what makes a "normal" monsoon, as well as how our expectations might be shaping how we perceive any given monsoon event or season. They cut short the El Niño discussion, as we've planned a special El Niño-centric podcast for Aug 21, to take a deeper look at El Niño so far, what we might expect, and how this (strong) event could compare to other similar events...so stay tuned regarding El Niño. CLIMAS Member(s):   Ben McMahan Michael Cr

In a special edition of the CLIMAS Southwest Climate Podcast, Zack Guido and Mike Crimmins: Recap the monsoon so far in 2015, including some of the factors that have affected our season (e.g. tropical storm systems) and the impacts we have seen from the monsoon in 2015 Discuss the features of the monsoon - the "ingredients" that make up the monsoon, and what happens when any of these are disrupted or absent, and Look forward regarding interactions between the monsoon and the current moderate-to-strong El Niño signal - what this might mean for the rest of the monsoon. We wanted to put together a special all monsoon podcast (this actually started as a "mini" podcast, but there was just too much to cover!).  We'll be back in early August with climate summaries, more on the monsoon, and (of course!) the current state of El Niño and what that means for the Southwest. CLIMAS Member(s):   Ben McMahan Michael Crimmins Zack Guido

In the June 2015 edition of the CLIMAS SW Climate Podcast, Mike Crimmins and Zack Guido recap the month of June, including the quick transition from cool and wet to hot and muggy conditions.  The discuss the impact of tropical storms on the region, the early start to this season, and what this may or may not mean in terms of relationship to monsoon patterns.  They turn to El Niño, and the impact the El Niño signal may be having on the region, both looking back at the past few months, but in particular looking forward at what this could mean for the southwest in terms of precipitation patterns over the next 12 months. 0:00 Introduction 1:15 June Recap- Temperature, Precipitation, Influence of Tropical Storms, etc. 8:00 Links to the Monsoon - System is setting up - what we've seen so far, and what we can expect moving forward. 15:00 Monsoon and (early arriving) tropical storms, and the impending El Niño event - how big of a role will ENSO play in the monsoon?  tropical storms? 22:30 Looking back to the E

We'll have a full episode of the Southwest Climate Podcast next week, but we wanted to take a quick run through the anomalous weather we saw in Mid/Late May and Early June.  In this mini-version of the SW Climate Podcast, Mike Crimmins and Ben McMahan go over the patterns we saw during this (admittedly beautiful) weather, before talking a bit about what this means looking towards the rest of the summer. CLIMAS Member(s):   Ben McMahan Michael Crimmins