Climas - Southwest Climate Podcast

In the March 2019 edition of the CLIMAS Southwest Climate Podcast, Mike Crimmins and Zack Guido reflect on the winter so far, including the "frigid" temperatures and "exceptional" precipitation. They also contextualize the winter by looking at the last 5 years - mostly warmer and drier - vs. climatology -- considering what a normal winter might actually look like in the Southwest.  They also discuss snowpack across the west, and consider how widespread this winter activity has been within the West. In addition to a brief detour into the state of El Niño and possible implications, they also revisit Zack's ski trip to slightly snowy Montana (instead of overwhelmingly snowed in Tahoe), and sum up the state of the precipitation bet for Jan-Feb-Mar (in case you missed it, Feb precipitation blew up the totals). They also have a new bet - whether we'll see enough precipitation between now and May 31 to reach top 8 wettest status (Zack's bet) or whether we'll stay in the 8th-14th wettest range (Mike's call).  

In the January 2019 edition of the CLIMAS Southwest Climate Podcast - Mike Crimmins and Zack Guido embrace our winter and talk through how the Southwest is performing over the last 30-90 days (including a recap of snow so far).  They also dive into the Polar Vortex, and talk through the factors that drive its appearance, and what it means for the rest of the country (as well as the Southwest).  They also take a brief detour to take a closer look at forecast snow totals across the West, in Zack's (hopefully successful) bid to predict good snow for an upcoming ski trip. They wrap up with a discussion of El Niño (or the possible lack thereof) and talk about what factors might be limiting the development of a more decisive El Niño event - including the Madden Julian Oscillation.  (They also recap where they stand in the J-F-M precip 'bet', although they both realize some flaws in their predictions from last month).

In the December edition of the CLIMAS Southwest Climate Podcast, Mike Crimmins and Zack Guido talk about the flip between our wetter/cooler October, and the drier conditions in November, as well as December so far. Next they dive into the snow - in a discussion of snow climatology in the Southwest, as well as a recent paper about declining snow in the western U.S by some of our colleagues in the Department of Hydrology and Atmospheric Sciences. Finally, they talk about the outlook for the next three months (Jan-Feb-Mar) and come up with a new bet tracking the monthly and cumulative totals. Play along at home, or send us your guesses before January gets too far along, and we'll see how you stack up against our "experts".   January February March Total Zack 1.25 0.75 0.9 2.9 Mike 1.5 1.0 0.3 2.8 Climatology 0.94 0.86 0.73 2.53  

In part 2 of the November 2018 edition of the CLIMAS Southwest Climate Podcast, Mike Crimmins and Zack Guido dive into El Niño in the Southwest. They discuss the current state of the science, what the forecasts have to say about El Niño, and what climatology can tell us about our expectations for an El Niño event in the Southwest. Production note: Travel schedules prevented us from recording a podcast in October, but Mike and Zack clearly had some pent-up perspectives on SW Climate, so the podcast ran a bit long.  We decided to release the podcast in two parts - the first part covers the monsoon, Oct/Nov weather & climate, and wildfire in the Southwest, while this part (part 2) covers El Niño in the Southwest (science, seasonal outlooks, and climatology).

In the November 2018 edition of the CLIMAS Southwest Climate Podcast, Mike Crimmins and Zack Guido give a brief recap of the monsoon rankings for 2018, to compare seasonal totals, and to see if a bit of hindsight adds anything to our assessment of the monsoon this year. Next they dive into October conditions in the Southwest (precipitation and temperature), and discuss the role that the Pacific tropical storm season played in these events, and the impacts that season had at a regional scale. They finish with a discussion of wildfire, with an eye towards what is happening in California right now. Production note: Travel schedules prevented us from recording a podcast in October, but Mike and Zack clearly had some pent-up perspectives on SW Climate, so the podcast ran a bit long.  We decided to release the podcast in two parts - the first part covers the topics mentioned above (Monsoon, October/Nov weather & climate, wildfire in the Southwest), while part 2 (to be released early next week) will cover El N

In the September 2018 edition of the CLIMAS Southwest Climate Podcast, Mike Crimmins and Zack Guido look back at the monsoon and talk about how the monsoon fired up and unfolded, some pretty impressive rain totals in the Southwest, and who might have been left out at times.  There are technically still a few days left in the monsoon, but during the 'transition' season of September, it takes some pretty special circumstances (or a tropical storm!) to bring widespread precipitation to the region. Conveniently, this just happened, so they talk about this event (on/around Sept 19) as well as the weather events of the last month and the monsoon precipitation totals (to date). They wrap up with a discussion of "the bet" and preview next month's podcast when they'll dive back into ENSO and the possible-to-likely El Niño that's been brewing for a few months now. 

In the August edition of the Southwest Climate Podcast, Mike Crimmins and Zack Guido discuss the monsoon in the Southwest this year. They focus on how it compares to past events and long term averages, and discuss the spatial and temporal variability of the storms that occur during the monsoon (i.e. did it rain at your house or not?). As part of their regional roundup, they talk about why (really how) Phoenix has been hogging more monsoon events than usual, and make note of the untapped potential in other parts of the Southwest, where conditions have been ripe for widespread monsoon activity, but has not seen the kind of 'epic' monsoon that Zack (and much of central Tucson) was hoping for. Mike reminds us that over the longer term it eventually evens out, although this is limited comfort for those who are on the losing (i.e. dry) end of the range of monsoon precipitation to date.  The bet for the monsoon total had Zack guessing 5.75" and Mike at 7.5" (and Ben wins if they both go over). The Tucson Airport is

The Monsoon is back! In the July edition of the CLIMAS Southwest Climate Podcast, Mike Crimmins and Zack Guido kick off with a recap of the role that Hurricane Bud played in driving storms and moisture into the Southwest on June 15-16, with a focus on the tropical moisture incursion that occurred during the transitional season. They even take a moment to discuss whether that event was the monsoon, or just - in Mike's words ' "monsoon-y". Next, they turn to the onset of the actual monsoon in terms of a few different metrics (precipitation, dewpoint, precipitable water), the atmospheric patterns that affect this onset, and how this shift has affected recent temperatures, wildfire season, and where and how precipitation is falling. They briefly discuss El Niño, as well as the seasonal outlooks that forecast a relatively rosy picture (i.e. wet) for Arizona and parts of New Mexico over the next few weeks and months. They also settle on their friendly wager for this month - how many days in July will have "measur

In the June 2018 episode of the CLIMAS Southwest Climate Podcast, Mike Crimmins and Zack Guido sit down to dive into their favorite season. The monsoon is on the horizon, which leads to considerable excitement.  First, they recap temperature and precipitation in the region, and talk about how this connects to the fire season so far. They turn to the monsoon outlooks and forecasts, with a close look at what these forecasts are saying, but how much certainty we have (or don't have) in monsoon seasonal forecasts. Zack then makes his case for the miracle monsoon - a mash up of different months of monsoons past - for what his ideal monsoon would look like (think fantasy football for monsoon monthly totals). They wrap up with a look at the seasonal forecasts - and focus on how ENSO connects to expectations for tropical storms, the monsoon forecast, and seasonal outlooks, even if the signal is relatively weak this time of year. In what is becoming a monthly contest, there's a friendly wager (or 2!) on the line. Th

In the May 2018 edition of the CLIMAS SW Climate Podcast, Mike Crimmins and Zack Guido sit down to discuss May's weather and climate, especially the windy conditions that seem to fire up every year around this time, and the role that plays in wildfire season.  They also discuss the precipitation history of the past year, reflecting on the low precipitation totals across most of the Southwest, but how concentrated the rain events were in Southern Arizona (July during last the monsoon, and a good run of storms in February).  This leads them to a discussion of drought in the region, which they discuss in terms of recent conditions, how this compares to other droughts in the past 20 years, and the data and information drought experts use to monitor regional drought conditions. As per usual, there's a friendly wager on the line. Zack "won" last month’s bet guessing the first day over 100 degrees in May (in 2018, it was May 6). In this episode they guess how many days over 100 we'll see in Tucson in May. The 30-y

In this episode of the CLIMAS Southwest Climate Podcast, Mike Crimmins and Zack Guido sit down to discuss what happened with the weather over the last 30 days. They break down the event from mid-February that brought a pulse of moisture to SE Arizona and SW New Mexico, including the connection between atmospheric rivers and precipitation in the Southwest (vs. CA). They also discuss the larger regional patterns of rain, snow, and streamflow within the context of the fading La Niña signal, and wrap things up with a new bet. When will the first 100 degree day occur? - tune in for the details, but as is their pattern, Zack is a bit ambitious in his guess, and Mike tends towards climatology.

In the February 2018 episode of the CLIMAS Southwest Climate Podcast, Mike Crimmins and Zack Guido chat about what's been going on in the Southwest over the past few months, since we last recorded a podcast.  In terms of precipitation, the answer is not much, unless the day in question is also a podcast day - the weather has an odd - but welcome - habit of raining on days we record the podcast.  In terms of temperature, the record to near record heat remains a key part of the winter story. Specifically, Mike and Zack discuss the conditions of the past 1-3 months, focusing on the overall lack of precipitation in the Southwest, meager snowpack, above average temperatures, and impacts associated with warmer and drier than average winters, including an early start to fire season in Arizona. They also discuss the atmospheric patterns that have led to the elevated temperatures and lack of precipitation in the SW, and what changed in the past week that brought much needed moisture and cooler conditions to parts of

In this episode of the CLIMAS Southwest Climate Podcast, Mike Crimmins and Zack Guido discuss the regional temperature and precip of the past 30-90 days, including the mostly above average temperatures, the very dry conditions, and the recent precipitation event that hit parts of southern Arizona and New Mexico. They also discuss the California wildfires in the context of the Santa Ana winds, years of persistent drought, and the convergence of conditions that set the stage for the current crisis in California - with an eye towards what conditions in Arizona and New Mexico look like for this coming fire season. They wrap up with a discussion of – you guessed it – La Niña, including connecting the current conditions to the larger arc of persistent drought, seasonal fire risk, and what we might expect looking forward (including a friendly wager on guesses for cool season precip). Materials Discussed in this episode:

In the Nov 2017 episode of the CLIMAS SW Climate Podcast, Mike Crimmins and Zack Guido sit down to discussion temperature and precipitation in the Southwest over the past month or so, and the discrepancy between Arizona and New Mexico re: precipitation.  They also dive into ENSO and the emergent (weak) La Niña conditions, and what this might mean, taking a close look at last year (another weak La NIña) and other weak La NIña events of the past decades. They wrap up with a quick summary of the seasonal outlooks for the Southwest.

In this episode of the CLIMAS Southwest Climate Podcast, Mike Crimmins and Zack Guido look back at the monsoon that wasn't, then very much so was, and then wasn't again (at least in Arizona), as well as the late season surge over in New Mexico.  They discuss the mechanisms that helped push the monsoon to near record levels in July, but helped facilitate a shut down for most of August and nearly all of September.  They also discuss "the bet".  Next month the discussion will return to ENSO, drought, and upcoming forecasts for fall/winter in the SW, but for now, it's all monsoon, all the time.

In the August edition of the CLIMAS SW Climate Podcast, Mike Crimmins and Zack Guido discuss how much has changed since the last podcast (Jul 12), which ended up being one of the first days in an impressive string of sustained monsoon precipitation events across the Southwest - and in much of southern Arizona in particular.  In the podcast - Mike and Zack recap the monsoon performance and statistics to date, they give an overview of the atmospheric patterns that led to the extended run of monsoon precipitation, and they daydream a bit about how close this year could come to monsoon records (if it stays on the current trajectory). Note: This podcast was recorded on Aug 9th, just before the next wave of monsoon activity fired up in southern Arizona.

In this edition of the CLIMAS Southwest Climate Podcast - Mike Crimmins and Zack Guido sit down to discuss Southwestern weather & climate, including: The extended heat wave of June 2017 (and the near record heat for the first half of 2017 (Jan-Jun)) (1:00 - 15:00), The wildfires in the Southwest , and the role that a monsoon late arrival might have played (15:00-19:00) The Southwestern Monsoon - the components of the system, comparisons to other years, and what we might expect going forward (19:00-38:00) As a note: this was recorded on Jun 12, 2017, before most of the extended run of monsoon activity that hit southern Arizona Jun 10 - Jun 17 (and is ongoing!).  Mike and Zack will discuss more about this (amazing) week in the next edition of the podcast. Materials discussed in this podcast:     Monsoon Resources CLIMAS: www.climas.arizona.edu/sw-climate/monsoon Monsoon Summaries: https://cals.arizona.edu/climate/misc/monsoon/monsoon_summaries.html CSAP: Precipitation Maps of the Monsoon

In this episode of the CLIMAS Southwest Climate Podcast, Mike Crimmins and Zack Guido discuss May weather in comparison to the record/near-record March conditions, what this means for snowpack, streamflow and reservoir conditions. They also discuss past/present/future wildfire, the imminence of summer heat, and the eventual relief monsoon conditions will bring.  Oh and a bit of El Niño sprinkled throughout - the role it might be playing in seasonal outlooks, and how strong it might be.

In the May 2017 episode of the CLIMAS Southwest Climate Podcast - Zack Guido is back and sits down with Mike Crimmins to do a recap of the winter that was (or in some ways, wasn't), the current and recent conditions in the Southwest (including fire weather and fire conditions), and a look forward to what we can expect from the "fire and brimstone" season that is already building (with just a hint of a monsoon discussion to keep Zack feeling sane). We updated our iTunes podcast feed: It would help us tremendously if you could rate and review the new podcast feed in iTunes, as these ratings help other listeners find our podcast. CLIMAS Member(s):   Ben McMahan Michael Crimmins Zack Guido

In this mini-episode of the SW Climate podcast, Mike Crimmins and Ben McMahan take a quick spin around the "snow-eater" temps of March, plus a brief comment on fire conditions. As a note: this was recorded before the SawMill Fire started in late April, so the discussion is on March conditions, and some commentary on early April Fire events (Shovel, Molino Basin). it might seem obvious now, but around 8 minutes in, but Mike hits the conditions that led to the SawMill fire pretty nicely. We'll have a full length podcast next week with Mike and Zack. CLIMAS Member(s):   Ben McMahan Michael Crimmins